Trade with Conviction

Episode 79: Iran brinkmanship, freight shock and margins under pressure

In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, the team unpacks a market caught between geopolitics and structural freight disruption. From high-stakes Iran negotiations and US tariff shocks to VLCC rates tripling in two months, we break down how crude flows, refining margins, and arbitrage economics are being reshaped in real time.
(01:01) Geopolitics: Iran, Tariffs and OPEC
The team breaks down the Iran negotiations, US tariff upheaval, China and India leverage, and what OPEC’s next move could mean for flat price direction.
(08:05) Distillates: Extreme Strength and Europe’s Ceiling
Diesel and jet cracks sit at seasonal highs, East-West spreads stretch wide, and arbitrage flows increasingly point barrels into Europe.
(15:27) Crude, Resid and Margins: Freight Shock Hits Refiners
VLCC rates surge 200% year to date, crude premiums begin to cool, and refiners reassess margins as higher freight costs ripple through buying decisions.
(22:28) Arbitrage Watch: West Weakens, East Adjusts
North Sea and WAF premiums soften, CPC becomes the arb anchor, and AG grades face pressure unless geopolitical risk escalates.
(26:15) Quick Fire Round: Gasoline, Fuel Oil and East-West
Asian gasoline shows recovery into turnaround season, Singapore 380 weakens under heavier supply, and East-West spreads test structural limits.
 

Episode 78: Iran stretches paper markets to breaking point

In this episode of the Trade with Conviction podcast, the Sparta team breaks down what's moving oil markets, not just in Iran, but Russian crude switching, gasoline contango and beyond
Iran tensions boil while Europe doubles down on navigating with the new world order.
Gasoline spreads swing on Dangote news, heavy selling in the Sing 92 window.
Russian refinery attacks could be the start of a diesel resurgence just as swing arbs are closed into Europe.
Spot AG crude diffs likely hit a ceiling on arb econs, unless Iran tail risk is realised.

Episode 77: Live from IE Week: The battle for fundamental fair value in an age of geopolitical disruption

In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction - live from IE Week in London - the team unpacks the growing disconnect in global energy markets: clear signs of a crude glut, yet spreads remain stubbornly backwardated as geopolitics and sanctions keep traders on edge.
Chapters: 
(00:17) Oil glut vs geopolitical premiumIs the surplus real? Heavy crude weakness, inventory builds, and why spreads refuse to break.
(10:38) How important are fundamentals today?The team discuss the decrease in importance fundamentals in the market and what’s driving these changes. 
(14:12) Sanctions, trade deals, and headline riskVenezuela, Russia, India, and how bilateral politics are reshaping flows faster than fundamentals.
(19:40) Crude trade flows and WTI-Brent dislocationDubai weakness, Americas supply growth, freight impact, and the marginal barrel shifting west.
(22:15) Distillates and jet: Freight, Russia, and export reshufflingUS Gulf runs, diesel into Europe, jet reversals, and the gasoil East-West story.
(23:21) Gasoline and naphtha: Structural tightness vs geopolitical swingsEuropean refinery closures, EBOB structure, component flows, and naphtha’s sanction sensitivity.
(25:35) Trade ideas: Light-heavy spreads, refinery margins, and prompt gasoline structureMedium-term positioning and short-term conviction trades across crude and products.
 

Episode 76: Rising pressure on Russian oil flows

Oil markets were driven by geopolitics this week, with Iran-related headlines triggering sharp swings in price. In this episode of Trade with Conviction, the team unpacks what the latest moves mean for the oil risk premium, before turning to crude markets and India’s buying patterns, Russian supply, and Middle East replacement flows.
Chapters
(00:31) Geopolitics and the oil risk premiumIran de-escalation headlines versus military incidents, India’s strategic role, and why crude remains headline-led into the weekend.
(09:57) Gasoline: contango, storage, and curve signalsUS inventory builds, Europe’s extreme carry, and how contango is supporting the prompt while pushing risk into Q2.
(20:16) Crude: India buying, Russian supply, and Middle East barrelsReplacement economics, Saudi OSP expectations, Lunar New Year liquidity, and why AG grades are best positioned near term.
(28:23) Trade box: AG differentials bull case vs bear caseWhy spot diffs could firm, what caps the upside, and how China stockbuilding complicates the outlook.
(30:30) Fuel oil and middle distillates quickfireVenezuela’s impact on heavy molecules, Russian HSSA outlets, diesel arbs, and freight steering flows into Europe.
 
 
 

Episode 75: Iran risk premium, glut reality

This week’s episode breaks down a market being pulled in two directions: geopolitical risk is driving flat price higher, while physical balances and inventories still point to a long market. The team covers escalating Iran risk, renewed Venezuela uncertainty, and how shifting global politics (including India’s positioning and a weaker dollar) are shaping sentiment. From there, they dive into key product moves across gasoline, naphtha, crude, and middle distillates, highlighting where physical markets are diverging from paper, how arbitrage windows are opening and closing, and what traders should watch as weather, outages, and refinery turnarounds reshape the near-term picture.
Chapters: 
(00:35) Geopolitical macro corner: Iran, Venezuela, and the risk premiumThe team unpacks the latest flashpoints driving flat price, and why traders are once again at the mercy of headlines.
(04:53) Dollar weakness and the “floor” under crudeA softer dollar supports prices, but the debate is whether it’s driven by growth optimism or loss of confidence.
(07:50) Gasoline: USGC tightness, Europe vs paper, and East-West pressureGasoline spreads and cracks diverge across regions, with weather, blending economics, and Asian exports reshaping the map.
(14:39) Trade box: gasoline and naphtha positioning into Q2Jorge shares two tactical ideas, plus the key risks that could challenge the setup.
(19:07) Crude: outages ease, physical weakens, and Brent looks stretchedCPC returns, differentials soften, and the team discusses why the physical market isn’t fully confirming the flat price rally.
(26:08) Middle distillates: weather-driven spike and the short HOGO debateHeating demand and refinery constraints push cracks higher, but the trade hinges on timing, ARBs, and the next cold snap.
(31:18) Fuel oil quick fire: firmer tone but not a full bull case yetSome clearing flows support the market, but cracks and arb signals still suggest caution.
 

Episode 74: Geopolitics first, balances second: What is really driving oil markets

This episode steps back from day to day price noise to examine how geopolitics is increasingly shaping oil markets across crude and products. The team unpacks the easing but unresolved US EU trade tensions, Venezuela’s uncertain return to market, and why Iran remains a background risk. From there, the discussion moves into how these geopolitical risks are keeping crude structures tight despite looser balances, before diving into physical crude flows, Indian buying behaviour, blending economics, and the knock on effects for freight and refining margins. The episode rounds out with a detailed look at distillates, gasoline, and light ends, highlighting where recent price strength is weather driven, structural, or potentially vulnerable.
Chapters:
(00:40) Geopolitical headlines and market reliefThe team discusses Greenland, US EU tariff risks, and why markets are calmer but far from settled.
(07:59) Europe, alliances, and the return of great power competitionA deeper look at shifting alliances, defence spending, and why security now matters more than efficiency.
(11:51) Crude structure, outages, and balance contradictionsWhy backwardation persists despite stock builds, with CPC outages and geopolitics in focus.
(16:43) Physical crude markets and Indian buying behaviourIndian refinery strategies, blending economics, and implications for AG and Atlantic Basin flows.
(23:33) Distillates outlook: diesel and jet regain momentumCold weather, stock tightness, and why cracks and spreads are responding.
(28:08) Gasoline and light ends: contango and spring signalsGasoline storage economics, Dangote delays, and early warnings from Asia.
 
 

Episode 73: Iran, Venezuela, Russia; the oil triple-threat

In this episode, the team breaks down how a fragile, two sided oil market is being shaped by geopolitics rather than fundamentals. With Venezuela, Iran and Russia all back in focus, they explore how sanctions risk, shifting trade flows and political uncertainty are keeping crude exposed to sharp risk rallies even as the broader balance points back towards oversupply. The conversation moves through crude and product markets, questioning whether current pricing truly reflects downside supply risk, and where traders should be most alert as seasonal and geopolitical forces collide.

Episode 72: Venezuela shocks the market: heavy sour pressure and the global crude reshuffle

The team kicks off 2026 by unpacking why flat price looks deceptively calm while physical markets are quietly shifting underneath. The discussion spans Venezuelan crude disruptions and heavy sour dislocations, Saudi OSPs and a softening Asian crude complex, tumbling freight reopening arbitrage routes, and tightening signals in gasoline and light ends. Across crude, gasoline, fuel oil and distillates, the episode focuses on how barrels are being displaced rather than lost, and why geography, logistics and benchmark behaviour matter more than headline noise right now.
Key Takeaways:
Heavy sour barrels are being reshuffled globally, not removed, and the price signals reflect that
Saudi OSP cuts and Chinese quota control are weighing on Asian crude benchmarks
Freight has quietly flipped arbitrage economics across basins
Gasoline structures have gone from no outlet to every outlet in a matter of weeks
Fuel oil reacted fast to Venezuela headlines, but the fundamentals may not back it up
Diesel looks weatherproof for now, despite cold snaps and low stocks
Chapters: 
(01:10) Headlines check: Venezuela and geopolitical noiseThe team assesses why dramatic headlines have barely moved flat price and what really matters for physical flows.
(05:30) Heavy sour crude and displacement risksHow Venezuelan barrels, Canadian crude and China’s teapots are reshaping the heavy sour balance without creating shortages.
(07:58) Asian crude under pressure: OSPs, Dubai and China quotasSaudi OSP cuts, a heavy Dubai structure, and why Beijing is tightening control over independent refiners.
(14:05) Gasoline and light ends: from nowhere to everywhereWhy EBOB found a floor, how storage and blending economics flipped, and where the next support could come from.
(18:28) Fuel oil reaction versus realityHigh sulfur fuel oil cracks jump on headlines, but mass balance tells a different story.
(19:31) US diesel and heating oil signalsStrong runs, warm weather and resupply flows keep distillates grounded despite tight regional stocks.
(21:02) What the desk is watching nextKey benchmarks, spreads and regions to watch as geopolitics continues to test market conviction.
 

Episode 71: Crude tidings: Oil market wrap-up & 2026 forecast

In the final episode of the year, the team breaks down the key macro and geopolitical drivers shaping Q1 2026 and what they mean for the physical barrel. They cut through Venezuela and Ukraine headlines, softening economic signals, and growing oversupply concerns, before moving product by product: distillates enter Q1 on a tighter footing, naphtha remains volatile but structurally supported by East West pull, gasoline shifts from European tightness into contango, and crude emerges as the core problem market unless headlines force a reset.
📚 Chapters
(01:27) Headlines: Venezuela, Ukraine, Europe, and softening dataEnforcement risk, sanctions talk, and growth signals collide, with a debate on what actually moves price versus what fades.
(10:11) Distillates: 2025 rewind and Q1 diesel and jet outlookA volatile year in diesel and jet, then a constructive Q1 case built around stocks, winter risk, and supply constraints.
(16:41) Naphtha: two halves of 2025 and why East West stays centralFrom early year strength to late year reshuffling, plus the structural demand pulls and key risks for Q1.
(25:00) Gasoline: Europe’s shift from tightness to contangoA year of tightening supply then returning barrels, with attention on transatlantic flow signals and refinery reliability.
(31:20) Crude: oversupply, structure, and what could force a pivotWhy balances imply pricing to store, how diffs and structure may adjust, and the potential rebalancing mechanisms to watch.
 
 
 
 

Episode 70: What does 2026 really look like for the oil market?

In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, the team breaks down the biggest questions shaping next year’s crude, margins, and demand outlook - and what traders should be preparing for now.
Key Takeaways: 
> What is the outlook for Chinese crude imports?
> Can margins deflate or is spare capacity too tight?
> Can demand surprise to the upside?
> What do key producers do next year and how quickly can the long balance be cut down?
Chapters: 
(01:35) Headlines: Tanker Seizure & Sanctions Reality Check
A breakdown of the Venezuela tanker seizure, the limited supply impact, and why the market keeps fading US sanctions risk.
(07:13) China in 2026: Imports, SPR Strategy & Demand Shift
A concise look at China’s crude demand trends, EV substitution, and whether stockbuilding could intensify if flat price falls.
(14:38) Gasoline & Fuel Oil: Seasonal Builds and Feedstock Signals
The team wraps product markets with U.S. winter gasoline builds, ARA balance, WAF flows, and fuel oil’s low-sulphur strength vs high-sulphur softness.