Trade with Conviction

Episode 69: Fog of war thickens

In this episode, the team breaks down an unusually long crude market, muted price reactions to geopolitical risk, and what shifting tone from OPEC’s latest OSPs might signal for 2025. They dig into Venezuela’s political volatility and what any supply hit would really mean for global flows, alongside a US production surge driven by the Permian and Gulf of Mexico. The conversation then moves into products, where gasoline and naphtha markets show sharp regional divergences, softening cracks, and some surprising Atlantic/Asia ARB developments - painting a picture of a market well-supplied in crude but still tight and reactive in key product hubs.
 
Chapters
(02:17) Headlines: Ukraine, CPC attack, and geopolitical fogWhy crude barely reacted to escalating infrastructure attacks — and what this says about global length.
(07:33) Venezuela, Trump, and global crude flowsThe team unpacks political threats, supply risk, and how China and US refiners would adapt.
(11:19) US supply surge and shale resilienceRecord output, surprising Permian growth, and what flat rig counts reveal about producer behaviour.
(16:09) European gasoline softness and the shift to LR2sHow freight, parcel size, and WAF flows are reshaping gasoline economics.
(18:50) Gasoline: PADD 1 vs PADD 3 diverging realitiesWhy the US East Coast draws aren’t moving arbs — and what exporters are signalling instead
(25:01) US crude supply surge and WTI dynamics
Record Permian output, Delaware Basin growth, and why flat rigs aren’t slowing production.
How these shifts affect WTI pricing and export potential.
(34:16) Middle distillates
Regional tightness, seasonal demand, and arbitrage flows shaping market opportunities.
 
 

Episode 68: Ukraine headlines, tight gasoline, and the missing crude glut

Neil, Phil, and James unpack a week where headline noise around a possible Ukraine peace deal clashes with still tight product markets and a supposedly long crude balance. They explore why prompt Brent spreads are so firm despite talk of a glut, dig into how gasoline and other light ends moved from extreme tightness toward something more normal, and then switch to diesel and jet to look at Q1 arbs, low stocks, and how headline risk is shaping trade calls. The team closes with a look at softer physical crude premiums, US crude exports and builds, and a quickfire tour of naphtha and fuel oil and what they might mean for refining margins into early next year.
📚 Chapters,
(00:46) Headlines and Ukraine peace talksNeil and Phil walk through the confusion around Ukraine peace plans, what different outcomes could mean for sanctions, and how that might hit crude, products, freight, and paper spreads.
(06:32) Gasoline and light ends after peak tightnessPhil explains how ARA gasoline went from extreme tightness toward something more normal, what barge diffs, arbs, and Singapore strength are telling us, and why he is leaning more cautious on Jan–Feb spreads.
(14:57) Middle distillates, jet, and Q1 arbsJames recaps how diesel and jet traded into expiry, then looks ahead to Q1 with closed US and Asian arbs into Europe, low stocks, and why he still prefers a bullish stance on ICE gasoil and regrades.
(23:39) Crude balances and the missing glutNeil reviews softer physical premiums in WAF, the AG, and the North Sea, reassesses his US crude build call, and asks whether we are finally starting to see more OECD barrels build rather than just sanctioned crude.
(28:36) Quickfire: naphtha and fuel oilThe pod wraps with a quickfire update on rich naphtha East West spreads, strong arbs to the East, and a weak fuel oil complex that is starting to drag on simple refining margins and could matter for crude and clean products.
 

Episode 67: Russian threats squeeze oil markets and push product prices higher

In this week’s episode, Neil steps in as host as the team unpacks a chaotic stretch in the oil market - from Russian export disruptions and the uncertain trajectory of US sanctions to a diesel market that has gone ballistic on genuine physical tightness. They explore shifts across crude grades, including North Sea softness, WAF heaviness, and surprising crude compatibility issues triggered by the Al-Zour outage. Light-ends remain volatile, gasoline premiums surge despite weak arb signals, and NGLs pile up in the US, painting a complex picture of a market where fundamentals and fear are colliding in unexpected ways.
 
 

Episode 66: Inside the refining crunch: Saudi supply shifts & sanctions fallout

This episode breaks down a week of tightening global oil product markets - from Saudi Arabia’s surprising crude allocations and renewed sanctions turbulence to refinery capacity constraints dominating trader chatter. The team dissects what’s behind surging distillate spreads, gasoline’s structural strength, and the interplay between arbitrage flows, refining runs, and global inventories heading into winter. With volatility rising across barrels, the discussion zeroes in on what could cool - or further inflame - product cracks as maintenance winds down.
Key Takeaways: 
Why Saudi’s lower-than-expected December allocations to China raised eyebrows
The latest sanctions snarl — and what it means for Russian crude flows and European refineries
Distillate spreads hit 2022-style highs: are refiners running hard enough to meet demand?
West Africa’s gasoline pull tightening global balances
Arbitrage routes reshaping between US Gulf, Europe, and Asia
The refinery capacity story everyone’s suddenly talking about
Chapters: 
(00:55) Market Setup & Saudi SurprisesRachel and Phil kick off with the week’s headlines — Saudi allocations to China, sanctions fallout, and signs of refinery tightness ahead.
(04:31) Distillate Spreads on FireJames explains the surge in gasoil cracks, East-West shifts, and why refiners might struggle to keep up with diesel demand.
(09:40) Gasoline Strength & Atlantic ArbsJorge digs into record-high gasoline cracks, West Africa’s pull, and how tight US and European stocks are reshaping trade routes.
(16:00) Naphtha Market Round-Up
Asian premiums rise as sanctions squeeze Russian supply — and backwardation keeps the East-West structure historically strong.
(18:07) Crude, Fuel Oil & Refinery BottlenecksPhil wraps up with crude market quirks, weak low-sulfur resid, and the broader refinery capacity story driving everything from octane to VGO.
(23:21) Outlook & Sign-OffThe team shares what they’re watching next - refinery restarts, inventories, and how the market resets heading into year-end.
 
 

Episode 65: Peak fear and the return to normal: Crude markets find their footing

In this episode of Trade with Conviction, Rachel, Neil, and June dissect the current crude oil landscape - from easing sanctions anxiety and shifting Chinese buying patterns to the tug-of-war between term and spot contracts. They dive into the changing dynamics of Russian crude flows, China’s strategic reserve buildout, OPEC’s cautious moves, and a freight market on fire, painting a picture of a market that’s steadying after turbulence but far from dull.
Key Takeaways:
> Have we passed “peak fear” on sanctions?> Why Chinese refiners should lock in more term barrels.> Freight rates surge: is the VLCC boom here to stay?> Refining margins skyrocketing - how long can it last?Chapters: 
(00:39) Peak Fear and the Russian BarrelNeil argues the market’s past “peak fear” — Russian flows continue, and sanctions are being absorbed rather than biting.
(02:30) India & China: Mixed Signals on BuyingConflicting headlines, shifting optics, and why oil “always finds a way.”
(09:01) AG Market Cools — Term vs SpotWith ample supply and volatility, Chinese refiners rethink how much crude to lock in for 2026.
(12:14) China’s SPR BuildoutJune breaks down China’s storage expansion — what 169 million barrels of new capacity could mean for demand.
(16:37) Freight FirestormVLCC rates surge again, shutting East–West arbs and reshaping crude differentials.
(21:00) Saudi OSPs & The Price SweetenerSaudi price cuts for Asia hint at a push to secure term deals — and pressure on AG spot markets.
(19:03) The Rest of the Barrel: Products & MarginsFrom naphtha to diesel, Neil and June unpack refining margins, freight, and where cracks might finally weaken.

Episode 64: Sanctions, spreads & suspense: Oil markets brace for OPEC’s weekend mood

In this week’s Trade with Conviction, Rachel, Phil, and James cut through another whirlwind week in oil markets. From Lukoil’s asset fire sale and CPC exemptions to OPEC’s pre-meeting suspense, the team unpacks how sanctions, refining margins, and global diesel strength are shaping sentiment heading into year-end.
Phil dissects crude’s split personality — WTI’s premium into Europe versus value in Asia — and explains why “MEH needs to soften” is the week’s most important crude takeaway. James returns from Sicily with a bullish distillate outlook, breaking down how new Russian sanctions, tight refining runs, and shrinking jet yields are fuelling diesel’s rally.
Plus, in the quickfire round: gasoline stays resilient despite refinery outages, naphtha gets the skip, and a fire at Al Zour shakes up fuel oil flows.
Learn more about Sparta at www.spartacommodities.com
P.S. “bought the rumour and now sold the fact” - Matt, VP Marketing.

Episode 63: Sanctions rally! But the devil is in the detail

In this episode of Trade with Conviction, hosts Rachel Williams, Philip Jones-Lux, and Neil discuss the seismic shifts in the oil market triggered by overnight news of U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, impacting Russian oil flows. They unpack the potential ramifications for global crude supply, particularly for India and China, while highlighting the uncertainty of President Trump's flip-flopping policies and their effect on market sentiment. The episode also touches on JODI data revealing surprising OECD stock builds, European refinery dynamics, and the strength in clean product cracks, offering traders a snapshot of key market signals amidst geopolitical volatility.
 
Key Takeaways: 
Risk rally has most legs in Dubai as Indian refiners plan to react immediately with trade deals on the line.
E/W spreads rally in favour of key short markets. Naphtha arbs East remain wide open.
European diesel now faces multiple risks to imports, at least on paper.
Gasoline supply risk is likely greater in the East, but prices rallied most in the West so far.
Chapters: 
(00:47) Sanctions Shake-Up: Rosneft and Lukoil Fallout
Rachel and Neil react to overnight U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, exploring the immediate risk rally in oil assets and the potential for policy reversals.
(07:45) India's Crude Conundrum
The team discusses how Indian refiners, like Reliance, might navigate sanctions and shift to spot market purchases, potentially tightening global crude supply.
(12:25) JODI Data Dive: OECD Stock Insights
Neil highlights surprising stock builds in OECD regions, particularly in NGLs, and questions their relevance for crude price dynamics.
(15:42) European Refinery Rundown
Phil examines robust European refinery runs amidst capacity drops, with a focus on gasoline demand strength and Dangote’s shaky RFCC operations.
(20:32) Crude Arbitrage and Cushing Concerns
Neil breaks down shifting crude arbitrage opportunities, spotlighting TI’s high valuations and Cushing’s critically low stock levels.
(25:42) QuickFile Market Roundup
The team fire off their key takeaways on the market.

Episode 62: US-China tensions re-ignite at a bad time for oil

In this episode of Trade with Conviction, a Sparta podcast, the hosts examine how escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and China are shaping the oil markets. They explore how trade disruptions are influencing freight rates, the impact of recent sanctions on Chinese crude imports, and the current outlook for gasoline and refining margins across Asia. The discussion also delves into crude market dynamics and wraps up with quickfire insights on key market trends, underscoring the need to stay informed in an increasingly volatile landscape.
Key Takeaways: 
> How US-China trade tensions are reshaping freight markets for now.
> Why sanctions could disrupting crude imports into Asia.
> Refining margins are still high, but does that matter?
> Quickfire market updates from our analysts
Chapters: 
(00:49) US China Trade Dynamics and Freight ImpactsNeil, June, and Michael break down how renewed US China trade tensions and new port fees are reshaping freight costs, tanker routes, and shipping market behavior. They also discuss why Chinese-built vessels could be the surprise winners.
(05:07) Market Reactions to Sanctions and RegulationsJune explains how the latest US sanctions on Chinese crude terminals and refineries are disrupting trade flows. The team examines short-term volatility, potential refinery run cuts, and how these measures could influence OPEC’s next moves.
(09:09) Crude Market Analysis and Regional DisparitiesNeil dissects the IEA’s forecast of a major oil glut and what it means for supply dynamics. The group debates whether OPEC will defend market share or reverse course and how regional price spreads reflect growing global imbalances.
(10:46) Freight Market Overview and Future PredictionsMichael shares insights into tightening VLCC availability and shifting freight fundamentals. The discussion covers US Gulf Coast vessel shortages, rising inefficiencies, and how market structure is evolving across key tanker routes.
(12:11) Gasoline Market AnalysisNeil and Michael assess EBOB strength, East West spreads, and competing ARBs between the US and Europe. June adds context on blending margins and freight trends, outlining what refiners should watch in the weeks ahead.
(17:50) Refinery Margins in AsiaJune explores why Asian refining margins are holding up despite unplanned outages, Chinese export limits, and regional turnarounds. Neil adds perspective on the recent dip in US distillate cracks and what it signals for global refining.
(20:52) Crude AnalysisNeil highlights the widening gap between West African weakness and Brent resilience, explaining how cheap AG barrels and soft Chinese demand are reshaping crude trade flows. The team discusses the implications for North Sea pricing.
(26:36) Quickfire Round Market Insights and PredictionsJune and Michael deliver fast updates on key market shifts — from propane undercutting naphtha in steam crackers to freight spreads tightening across the Atlantic — plus what to watch for next week’s trading outlook.
 

Episode 61: Oil defying contango...for now

In this week's Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, Rachel Williams, Neil Crosby, and June dive into the oil market's most telegraphed glut, dissecting OPEC's recent 137 kbd production hike and its implications for global crude flows. They explore why Brent spreads remain resilient despite bearish fundamentals, analyse key trades like Brent-Dubai swaps and transatlantic gasoline arbitrage, and highlight shifting dynamics in naphtha and distillates. The episode also covers freight market trends and refining challenges, offering traders actionable insights into navigating oversupply risks and arbitrage opportunities.
Key Takeaways:
OPEC's production hike: What does the 137 KBD increase signal about their confidence, and how might it reshape global crude markets?
Brent-Dubai swaps: Is the recent weakness in Dubai a fleeting opportunity or a sign of deeper bearish pressures?
Transatlantic gasoline arbitrage: Why is the $3.45/gallon setup puzzling traders, and what role does Dangote play?
Naphtha and distillates: Are East-West naphtha spreads overdone, and is now the time to buy the Ice Nov-Dec gas oil dip?
Freight market shifts: How are softening TC14 rates and a rebounding TD25 impacting crude and product flows?
Chapters
(01:29) OPEC’s Production Hike and OSP Strategy
Neil unpacks OPEC’s 137 kbd increase and their decision to hold firm on Asian OSPs, signaling confidence amid a looming glut.
(03:22) Decoding the Global Oil Glut
The team investigates why Brent spreads defy bearish fundamentals, exploring oil-on-water trends and Saudi loading patterns.
(07:10) Brent-Dubai Swaps: A Trading Opportunity?
June and Neil analyze the weakening Dubai market and discuss whether selling Brent-Dubai swaps offers a profitable entry point.
(12:17) Transatlantic Gasoline Arbitrage Breakdown
Neil and June explore the $3.45/gallon transatlantic arb, weighing Dangote’s influence and mixed signals from U.S. and Latam stocks.
(15:12) East-West Naphtha: Overbought or Justified?
June highlights naphtha’s peak pricing, driven by Russian refinery attacks, and debates whether East-West spreads are set to correct.
(18:46) Ice Nov-Dec Gas Oil: Time to Buy the Dip?
Neil and June discuss the oversold Ice Nov-Dec gas oil spread, spotlighting shifting U.S. yields and closed European arbs.
(22:20) Quickfire: Fuel Oil, Freight, and Refining Updates
The team tackles Forties’ overvaluation, TC14 softening, and Malaysia’s refinery woes, offering rapid-fire trade insights.
 

Episode 60: Writing on the Wall: The crude glut is here, with global exports booming, and structure crumbling

In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, host Rachel Williams, alongside analysts Jorge and Neil, dissects the latest oil market dynamics. The discussion delves into bearish US inventory builds, OPEC’s anticipated production hikes, and Venezuela’s export surge to a five-year high. Gasoline markets are spotlighted with strong EBOB cracks driven by Dangote refinery disruptions, while European naphtha faces pressure with a shift to contango. Crude spreads are softening globally, and distillate markets show mixed signals, with potential bullishness looming. The episode wraps with trade ideas, emphasising caution amid a volatile market landscape.
Key Takeaways:
Physical crude pricing remains choppy but average direction seems downward whilst paper is beginning to crumble.
US inventory picture remains bearish when you look under the bonnet.
EBOB's perfect storm is set to calm.
Record naphtha arb econs not just a Russia scare but a European malaise.