Trade with Conviction

Felipe Elink Schuurman is joined by James Noel-Beswick and Michael Ryan as Trump threatens Oman and squeezes Iran's UAE-run cash flows. Russian refinery strikes cut runs to a 24-year low, driving diesel cracks past $100 a barrel, while European freight rates collapse to six-month lows.
Chapters:
(01:28) Hormuz standoff and Trump's threats to OmanTrump threatens crushing sanctions and to bomb Oman as Iran's crude flows keep diversifying away from the strait.
(07:27) Crude freight: Suezmax and VLCC rates skyrocketSuezmax and VLCC rates surge as owners chase Red Sea and India demand, squeezing Atlantic tonnage.
(09:12) Russia's refinery crisis and diesel's record breakoutDrone strikes cut Russian runs to a 24-year low as diesel cracks and spreads hit record highs.
(14:02) Diesel flows: Latin America pulls barrels, Europe freight collapsesUS diesel barrels head to Brazil replacing lost Russian supply, while European MR freight hits six-month lows.
(24:02) Gasoline and naphtha: all-time highs meet a pauseTAA arb collapses and TC2 freight halves as gasoline touches record cracks and naphtha arbs stay shut.
(31:02) Macro: dollar weakness fuels the commodity hedge tradeA six-month dollar low points to macro funds buying commodities as an inflation and currency hedge.
 

June Goh hosts this week with guest Jay Maroo, as Iran hardens its military stance and Hormuz risk lingers. They cover IEA and OPEC's diverging demand calls, ADNOC's transponder-dark shuttle tankers beating the blockade, a stubbornly wide Brent-Dubai EFS, and a tightening Atlantic diesel market.
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Chapters: 
 
(00:42) Hormuz and Russia: sanctions escalateTwo vessel attacks near Hormuz, Iran's military turns hawkish, and a Senate bill threatens 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers.
(04:20) IEA vs OPEC: the demand gapIEA turns more bearish on demand while OPEC stays positive, a 2.2 million barrel a day gap.
(08:29) The great milk run: ADNOC beats the blockadeADNOC's dark shuttle tankers push UAE output above pre-war levels while Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi stay shut in.
(11:20) Fuel oil and crude: the tightening squeezeSingapore fuel oil stays trapped in a tightening loop, ADNOC's tender drops a grade, and WAF premiums look shaky.
(17:04) Middle distillates: refinery outages biteRefinery outages tighten Atlantic diesel further, yet Sikka's jet arb into Europe stays wide open.
(21:22) Light ends: EBOB strength spreads westLow Rhine water lifts EBOB, US Gulf gasoline exports swell, and Singapore mogas turns bullish for September.
 

June Goh hosts Neil Crosby and Abhishek Kumar as Hormuz talks flip on and off again, smashing gasoline cracks. They cover Iranian tanker pileups, China's bigger export quotas, Russian diesel exemptions, Murban futures' wind-down, and a bullish fuel oil case into September.
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Chapters: 
(00:43) Hormuz headlines: the on-off deal traders can't trade Iranian tankers pile up, Houthis strike again, and the binary Hormuz signal looks set to drag past the midterms.
(08:21) EIA and China's quota puzzle US crude exports crash from 5.5m to 3.5m b/d as China lifts August export quotas, but quotas aren't shipments.
(15:00) Gasoline cracks get smashed EBOB and RBOB spreads unwind hard on fading Hormuz risk and stabilising US stocks. Still no clean trade here.
(22:21) Distillates and jet split east and west Asian gas oil rally stalls as China supply returns, while European diesel stays deep in deficit on Russian export curbs.
(29:46) Crude quickfire: Murban futures die, Aramco cuts OSPs Ice Murban winds down, Aramco trims Arab Light 50 cents, and West African crude wins on Hormuz avoidance.
(33:17)* Fuel oil: the Cape reroute bites Thirty extra days round the Cape means lower runs and less residue, a bullish setup for 0.5% sulfur into September.

June Goh hosts Abhishek Kumar and Jorge Molinero as Brent swings from $100 to $85 to $93 in a week. They cover Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, Suez rerouting costs, a tightening diesel market, and diverging crude premiums across Hormuz and Red Sea choke points.
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Chapters: 
(00:35) Oil's Wild Week: Houthi Attacks and the Yanbu Reroute Brent swung from $100 to $85 to $93 in days. Abhishek breaks down Jizan refinery strikes and Suez rerouting costs.
(07:22) Rhine Crisis and Record-Tight US Barrels Kaub gauge nears critical levels as US crude and gasoline stocks hit multi-year lows despite record refinery runs.
(09:42) Gasoline and Naphtha: East Beats West East-West spread flips as European E10 blending reopens and the TAR arb into PAD1 looks set to widen.
(14:10) Diesel Squeeze and the Freight Spike Behind It TC14 rates jump on tonne mile demand as Jazan's outage and a possible Russian export ban extension tighten Europe further.
(20:55) Crude Flows Rewrite Around Two Choke Points Murban and Melbourne premiums diverge as Asian refiners route around both Hormuz and the Red Sea.
(24:15) Fuel Oil: HSFO Eases, VLSFO Stays Tight August HSFO cracks pull back from highs while VLSFO cracks sit near $23 on limited medium crude supply.
 

Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels loading at Yanbu leave seven million barrels of crude searching for a route. Felipe Elink Schuurman, James Noel-Beswick and Jay Maroo on Suezmax freight, why diesel still looks undervalued, and the crude spreads with room to run.
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Chapters: 
(01:11) Risk stacks up: Houthis, Yanbu and CPC — Attacks on Saudi vessels at Yanbu and 1.5m b/d of Kazakh crude offline stack the risk higher.
(03:48) Seven million barrels with nowhere to go — Yanbu crude needs a new route north via Suez or around the Cape. Costlier, slower, tighter.
(08:44) Diesel's worst-case setup is building — Jody confirms weak EU demand; diesel still looks undervalued with Russia, Mideast and Yanbu supply all at risk.
(19:01) Singapore rips, Europe waits — Singapore spreads break every moving average; Gulf Coast dominates as Europe eyes September arbs.
(23:34) The bull case for Brent spreads — Brent Dubai and CPC keep the long alive, but the cleaner trade sits in freight.
(27:27) Freight: the trade with conviction — Suezmax TD20 and TD3C as Yanbu and Houthi inefficiencies ripple through shipping.
 

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and Jay Maroo on the collapsed Iran ceasefire, Brent's jump from 72 to 85, and the market fatigue no one's pricing. Diesel cracks and gasoline spreads hit records while crude stays quiet, with the Russian diesel ban now double the Hormuz problem.
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Chapters
(01:41) The ceasefire is dead, and the market is tired
MOU collapse, escalation back, Brent at 85, but fatigue means no one wants to price the risk.
(12:16) Diesel: the Russian ban that dwarfs Hormuz
Russian diesel exports near 1m bpd gone, cracks and spreads bullish, Hogo the solver into Europe.
(21:52) Crude: enough for now, bullish later
Asians scramble for WTI and SPR barrels, Europe long crude, WTI-Brent widens, Brent bullish eventually.
(29:49) Gasoline: cracks at ten-year highs
Spreads and cracks at records, New York arbs shut for August, Singapore spreads the trade to watch.
 

June Goh hosts her first episode with Abhishek Kumar as the US-Iran ceasefire cracks and Hormuz transits collapse to near zero. They cover Brent flipping back to backwardation, Russia's diesel export ban, China's product relaxation, European cracks near 60, the ADNOC tender, and a short HOGO trade idea.
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Chapters:
(01:45) Hormuz reignites and the ceasefire cracks Vessels attacked, US revokes Iranian oil license, transits near zero. Trump says the truce is effectively over.
(03:13) Spreads, OPEC+ and depleted inventories Brent flips to backwardation, OPEC+ adds another August barrel, global stocks still down over 1 billion barrels.
(06:21) Can China save the product market? Beijing clears 1.3 million tons of product exports, but volumes skew to gasoline and jet, not diesel.
(08:07) Russia's diesel ban and refinery 101 Drone strikes force a Russian export ban. June breaks down which units get hit and what it signals.
(12:08) Crude: the ADNOC tender and the mini glut Chinese teapots buy Upper Zakum, Dubai returns to backwardation, how you can be short crude yet see a glut.
(15:01) Distillates, jet and freight European cracks surge past 60, a short HOGO idea, jet becomes a diesel story, Michael Ryan's de-escalation freight case.
 
 
 

Felipe Elink Schuurman and research heads Neil Crosby, James Noel-Beswick, and Jorge Molinero mark episode 100 analyzing crude's peak weakness versus 10-year-high distillate rallies. Russia's refinery crisis, Hormuz rebalancing, and when stock replenishment becomes the real floor signal.
Chapters: 
**(01:47) Hormuz reopens, but the real question is what comes next** 
10-15 million barrels per day flowing out, but Iran maximizing exports while US refills reserves.
**(08:46) Russia's refining collapse is reshaping global product markets** 
Runs halved from 6M to 3M bpd. Ukraine's drone campaign crippling refineries. Fuel imports imminent.
**(12:50) Distillates at 10-year highs: Russian exports collapsing, US yields maxed** 
Global diesel and jet spreads outdoing 2022. East-West spreads historic. Products decoupling from crude.
**(17:25) Gasoline: The trend is your friend, but watch blending margins** 
RBOB and EBOB spreads rally to $51 on stock depletion. Arbs from ARA still pointing West.
**(27:20) Crude at peak weakness: Why the TI Brent short thesis works now** 
Paper collapsed, logs battered, all solutions materialized. Neil on why prices can only rise from here.
 

Neil Crosby, June Goh and Abhishek Kumar unpack Brent's shock flip into contango as Hormuz reopens and AG crude floods back. Dubai swaps at minus one, the "Asian crude buffet," a potential Russian diesel ban, and why jet looks weaker than diesel into summer.
Chapters: 
(01:23) Brent flips to contango: the crude sell-off
Brent and Dubai flip into contango as Hormuz reopens. Traders extrapolate supply forward, but is it fair value?
(09:15) The Asian crude buffet
Dubai swaps at minus one, Murban dives $10, Iranian waiver lands. Why nobody wants the risk yet.
(16:57) OPEC, UAE and refinery runs
UAE back to max, China independents at a nine-year low. How fast does AG supply return?
(20:40) Distillates and the Russian diesel ban
Diesel off panic pricing but not loose. Abhishek leans bearish jet and HOGO as flows normalize.
(30:13) Gasoline and naphtha
Houston still tightest globally, but US peak tightness looks behind us. Weak naphtha caps any gasoline upside.
 
 

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and James Noel-Beswick dig into the signed Iran-US MOU and a market pricing rapid de-escalation. Crude under $80, Dubai swaps in contango, an oversold barrel. They weigh whether Hormuz reopens cleanly or shipping delays keep oil short for longer.
Chapters: 
(00:31) The Iran MOU: signed, but what was signed?
A $300bn package, a 60-day Hormuz waiver and a deal that looks better for Iran than the US.
(06:31) Scenarios: oversold now, but is it real?
Dubai swaps in contango, longs washed out. Neil maps the path from here over the next six weeks.
(15:43) Distillates: cracks cool, US stocks stay perilous
Gas oil spreads sell off hard, but heating oil holds as PADD diesel stocks signal slowing US exports.
(18:57) Gasoline: the US bounce and Europe's supply wall
RBOB spreads firm as arbs open to New York, while Dangote and Northwest Europe cap the upside.
(23:32) Crude: heavy everywhere except the US
AG and Brent diffs plummet, US tightens then peaks, and China is the swing nobody can call.
(29:03) Fuel oil: 0.5 looks oversold
East-west back below $40/ton at pre-war levels, with arbs shut and Dangote barely breaking even.