Trade with Conviction

Episode 99: Brent flips to contango. Is the crude crisis over?

Neil Crosby, June Goh and Abhishek Kumar unpack Brent's shock flip into contango as Hormuz reopens and AG crude floods back. Dubai swaps at minus one, the "Asian crude buffet," a potential Russian diesel ban, and why jet looks weaker than diesel into summer.
Chapters: 
(01:23) Brent flips to contango: the crude sell-off
Brent and Dubai flip into contango as Hormuz reopens. Traders extrapolate supply forward, but is it fair value?
(09:15) The Asian crude buffet
Dubai swaps at minus one, Murban dives $10, Iranian waiver lands. Why nobody wants the risk yet.
(16:57) OPEC, UAE and refinery runs
UAE back to max, China independents at a nine-year low. How fast does AG supply return?
(20:40) Distillates and the Russian diesel ban
Diesel off panic pricing but not loose. Abhishek leans bearish jet and HOGO as flows normalize.
(30:13) Gasoline and naphtha
Houston still tightest globally, but US peak tightness looks behind us. Weak naphtha caps any gasoline upside.
 
 

Episode 98: Iran signs, crude breaks $80, but we're now oversold

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and James Noel-Beswick dig into the signed Iran-US MOU and a market pricing rapid de-escalation. Crude under $80, Dubai swaps in contango, an oversold barrel. They weigh whether Hormuz reopens cleanly or shipping delays keep oil short for longer.
Chapters: 
(00:31) The Iran MOU: signed, but what was signed?
A $300bn package, a 60-day Hormuz waiver and a deal that looks better for Iran than the US.
(06:31) Scenarios: oversold now, but is it real?
Dubai swaps in contango, longs washed out. Neil maps the path from here over the next six weeks.
(15:43) Distillates: cracks cool, US stocks stay perilous
Gas oil spreads sell off hard, but heating oil holds as PADD diesel stocks signal slowing US exports.
(18:57) Gasoline: the US bounce and Europe's supply wall
RBOB spreads firm as arbs open to New York, while Dangote and Northwest Europe cap the upside.
(23:32) Crude: heavy everywhere except the US
AG and Brent diffs plummet, US tightens then peaks, and China is the swing nobody can call.
(29:03) Fuel oil: 0.5 looks oversold
East-west back below $40/ton at pre-war levels, with arbs shut and Dangote barely breaking even.

Episode 97: Hormuz transits accelerate but risk is high.

Neil Crosby hosts with Michael Ryan and June Goh. Growing Hormuz transits, a record 262 VLCC orders, Atlantic tonnage oversupply, softening Dubai premiums, and why Singapore VLSFO blend margins are building a bullish case into Q3.
Chapters: 
(00:48) Atlantic freight: the tonnage trap
Ships flooding the Atlantic from all segments as Persian Gulf flows shrink, driving wild rate swings.
(04:47) Iran, Hormuz and US strategy
US-Iran direct conflict resumes; Hormuz transits quietly growing as Iran's oil influence fades.
(07:26) Demand data and inventory watch
Indian and EU demand mixed; Cushing near its 20 million barrel floor; VLSFO stocks at zero in Fujairah.
(12:09) Record VLCC orders: a long-term warning
262 VLCCs on order, surpassing the 2008 peak. The bearish signal shipowners cannot ignore.
(19:19) PG crude: trickle turns to stream
ADNOC tenders 14 million barrels; Dubai premiums soften; China stays out of WAF and PG markets.
(26:59) Products quickfire: distillates, gasoline, fuel oil
Singapore regrade strengthens; VLSFO east-west collapses to $55/ton; Botany Bay gasoline arb reopens.
 
 
 

Episode 96: Peace deal merry-go-round continues

Felipe Elink Schuurman hosts Neil Crosby and first-time guest Jay Maroo. The episode covers the stalled US-Iran peace process, Hormuz transit at 10% of pre-crisis levels, Indian and Chinese product exports collapsing, Cushing approaching its 20 million barrel floor, and why crude, distillates, and gasoline all look too cheap.Chapters: 
(01:15) Sleepwalking into the inventory crisis
Lebanon complicates the Iran deal; Brent under $100 despite accelerating US commercial crude draws.
(06:00) Hormuz: 10% of pre-crisis flows
Jay Maroo: even a peace deal won't reopen flows quickly — Hormuz is a runway, not a field.
(10:29) India, Russia, China: the supply rescue fails
Indian exports at 4-year lows, Russian runs collapsing, Chinese product exports disappoint May expectations.
(14:39) Distillates: gas oil rallies, heating oil spreads lag
Kuwait airport attack lifts sentiment; heating oil spreads haven't followed — and may still be the trade.
(20:28) Crude: Cushing at 22 million barrels
Commercial draws hit 1 mbd last week; physical diffs in Europe cooling from unexpected crude inflows.
(26:57) Gasoline: at five-year mean, everything looks cheap
ARA cheapest into LatAm; demand destruction estimates rising to 5-6 mbd globally.
 

Episode 95: Risk-off and short-term solvers, but it won't last.

Neil Crosby and June Goh cut through the noise on US-Iran deal speculation, unpacking why flat price is off, what 7 million bpd of Chinese crude imports means for diesel east-west dynamics, and why Sing FOGO holds up when bunker demand proves more inelastic than diesel.
00:00 – Hormuz risk and deal pricing Why the market is pricing an imminent deal, and why the evidence points the other way.
03:03 – China's crude import collapse May imports potentially at 7 million bpd — what that means for Asian balances and global supply.
09:32 – Dubai window and physical crude Dubai in the doldrums with almost no convergences; sellers stuck with cargo bought at higher levels.
09:53 – WTI, TI-Brent, and US market tightening Commercial draws accelerating, WCS diffs rising, MEH diff tightening — why TI-Brent could move further.
12:16 – Gasoline: RBOB, TA spreads, and Latam Summer arb mechanics, TC2 tonnage overhang, and the ARA vs Houston competitive dynamic.
17:09 – Distillates, east-west, and fuel oil China's crude release reshapes diesel E/W; Sing FOGO positive bias as bunker demand holds more inelastic than diesel.

Episode 94: The largest stock draw in history. Oil barely moved.

Felipe Elink Schuurman, June Goh, and new analyst Abhishek Kumar cover a record 19.5mb stock draw that barely moved prices, the Russia OFAC waiver with no new barrels, India's supply strategy, Asia's group buying trend, and trade views across distillates, jet, fuel oil, and gasoline.
Chapters:
(01:02) Trump backs down and vessels start moving June on the Iran strike cancellation, ICE Brent's fall, and the first VLCCs exiting the Strait.
(02:35) Record 19.5mb stock draw. The market barely reacted. June on the historic combined crude and product draw and why flat price still fell to $105/bbl.
(07:35) Russia waivers and UK exemptions: what they actually mean The OFAC extension adds no new barrels. The UK diesel/jet waiver is a sign of desperation, not relief.
(12:45 ) India in focus: supply strategy, Russia dependency, and SPR plans Abhishek on India's pump price hike, Modi's demand appeals, and long-term moves to expand strategic reserves.
(19:24) Physical crude: Asia over-supplied for August June on the prompt overhang, Brent backwardation at $4.50/bbl, and why WAF grades remain undervalued.
(23:17) Distillates, jet, and gasoline: trade views Abhishek's case for July ICE gas oil cracks, bearish NWE jet, and June on Singapore 92 near 5-year highs.

Episode 93: No Iran deal yet. US stocks are draining. What breaks first?

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby, and James Noel-Beswick cover the stalling Iran deal, Karg Island's loading disruption, US diesel and gasoline stocks nearing commercial minimums, growing export ban risk, collapsing Brent differentials, and why the market keeps surprising on timing.
Chapters:
(01:08) Iran deal stalls and Karg Island goes quiet Neil on why the deal looks dead and what a loading stoppage at Iran's main export terminal signals.
(03:13) US product stocks and the export ban risk Diesel and gasoline near commercial minimums. Neil on why a ban could land before June.
(06:25) Distillates: jet yields, the regrade, and East West Jet yields near max, the regrade has overshot, and why James is bullish from here.
(28:50) Crude: Brent diffs collapse and China goes quiet WAF selling slowly, Chinese imports 3mbd below normal. Neil makes the case for buying Brent diffs.
(36:26) Gasoline: ARA turns cheapest, US starts to drain ARA now the cheapest global source, US stocks declining, and why 2015-style summer tightness is back.
(40:12) Getting the timing right The team reflects on why fundamentals have been right but timing wrong, and what the real trigger points are.

Episode 92: Iran talks spin. US diesel stocks are running out of runway.

Neil Crosby hosts with June Goh and Jorge Molinero. Iran deal uncertainty keeps markets trading headlines as US diesel stocks head for critical lows within weeks. June covers Saudi OSPs, record Japanese US crude purchases, and TMX. Jorge runs through the ARA-PAD1 gasoline arb and GASNAP strength.
Chapters: 
(00:31) Iran deal uncertainty The market trades headlines as US policy shifts erratically and Iran's red lines stay unclear.
(04:09) US diesel stocks: weeks of runway left Commercial crude and diesel inventories are drawing at pace; a reckoning may be only weeks away.
(07:19) Physical crude: Saudi OSPs, TMX, and Japan's record US buys Saudi barrels look expensive; Japan locks in 12 million barrels of US crude for August delivery.
(15:44) Gasoline: the ARA-PAD1 arb stays open TAR remains open for refiners; GASNAP hits historical highs as East-West rebounds and naphtha softens.
(27:00) Middle distillates: East-West looks too cheap Gas oil spreads collapsed from +100 to +36 in 10 days. Neil makes the case they've overshot.
(31:20) Fuel oil and freight Sing 0.5 crack rallies to $15; VLSFO tight across Fujairah, HK, and Korea; TC14 and TD25 flagged as overvalued.
 
 

Episode 91: Asia absorbed the initial shock. Now the US is running dry.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Neil Crosby, and Jorge Molinero on the crisis shifting West. Neil unpacks a 25-million-barrel US stock draw and trade ideas across Hogo, regrade, and diesel cracks. Jorge covers gasoline East-West flows and the US TAR opening.
Chapters: 
(01:20) Big picture: Iran war and the physical reset US drew 25 million barrels in one week. Neil explains why physical isn't pricing max pain yet.
(07:38) East to West: how the crisis is shifting Asia absorbed the initial shock. The US is now the story, swinging from net importer to net exporter.
(15:43) Gasoline: East-West collapse and the ARA arb Felipe and Jorge debate East-West recovery as Singapore becomes cheapest gasoline into more destinations.
(21:47) US gasoline TAR: the arbitrage is opening Net imports at seven-year lows. The ARA-to-PAD1 arb is cracking open for the first time in months.
(30:50) Middle distillates: Hogo, regrade, and deferred diesel cracks Neil makes the case for three distillates trades as US stocks approach historical lows.
(37:02) Crude: TI Brent, Brent diffs, and the flat price view TI Brent still looks like a buy. Brent physical diffs may run lower short-term.
 

Episode 90: The market is exhausted. The crisis is not.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman and June Goh cover the FT Commodities conference, where major trading house CEOs signalled no short-term resolution to Hormuz. June runs through crude premium collapse, EU sanctions, and a bullish fuel oil case into Q3.
Chapters: 
(01:04) FT Conference: No deal in sight, Russia backing Iran CEOs of Trafigura, Vitol, Mercuria and Gunvor: no short-term resolution. Mercuria's Dunand: Russia is backing Iran.
(10:20) Headlines: Hormuz stays shut and airlines start cancelling flights Ceasefire extended but Hormuz stays shut. IRGC firing on vessels. Lufthansa cancels 20,000 summer flights.
(17:11) Crude: Premiums drop $11 as China sells West African barrels Forties premiums down $11. China selling West African barrels into Asia while tapping SPR for state refiners.
(22:02) Distillates: HOGO squeeze and the East-West tug of war US diesel at five-year lows keeps HOGO supported. East-West stuck at minus 35-40 but Europe-Asia barrel fight looms.
(27:31) Gasoline and naphtha: EPA waivers, the Atlantic shift and East-West collapse Europe now cheapest into Mexico as Houston tightens. Naphtha East-West at war lows but a rebound looks likely.
(34:48) Fuel oil: Singapore tightens and Q3 VLSFO cracks are a buy Russian fuel oil propping up Singapore is set to dry up. June calls Q3 VLSFO cracks at $11 a buy.