Trade with Conviction

Episode 89: The blockade is here. Now what?

Host Neil Crosby talks with June Goh and Michael Ryan about a week of conflicting signals on Iranian vessels, accelerating refinery run cuts across Asia, and the secondary unit squeeze nobody's talking about. The team unpacks why a peace deal wouldn't fix markets overnight, how freight rates could spike if tankers can't reposition in time, and where the real pricing action is in diesel and gasoline.
Chapters: 
 
(00:46) The blockade is here, but what does it actually mean?
Neil opens with the state of play after the failed peace talks, the conflicting signals on which ships are getting through Hormuz, and why owners still don't have enough clarity to act.
 
(04:16) Even with peace, the supply chain is broken.
June explains why a deal wouldn't fix the market overnight, with three to six months needed to rebuild logistics and reposition the VLCCs that have scattered to the US Gulf Coast.
 
(06:14) Asian run cuts and SPR draws are accelerating.
The team breaks down Japan's 68% utilization rate, Singapore's 50–60% runs, and China's reluctant move to tap strategic reserves.
 
(15:33) The secondary unit squeeze nobody's talking about.
June walks through how lower medium sour availability cascades through VGO, hydrocrackers, FCCs, and short residue units, and why Singapore bunker fuel production is at risk.
 
(22:25) What happens to AG freight if peace lands?
Michael lays out the scenario where a deal triggers a selloff in AG paper, but a shortage of repositioned tankers could cause rates to spike again weeks later.
 
(25:50) Diesel and gasoline: where the real pricing action is.
The team covers the surprise weakness in Singapore diesel, the divergence in gasoline cracks between East and West, and what it means for arb economics heading into May.
 
 

Episode 88: The ceasefire that changed nothing. Where does oil go from here?

The ceasefire is two days old. Nothing has changed on the water.
Sea mines in the channel. IRGC still threatening vessels. No owners willing to move. Hormuz flows stuck below 50% for at least another month.
Paper sold off hard on the headlines. Already rebounding. Physical premiums at records across crude, naphtha, and diesel. Every risk-off dip is looking like a buying opportunity.
Chapters: 
(00:43) Ceasefire reality check
Neil sets the scene: day two of the ceasefire, sea mines in the Strait, IRGC threats to shipping, and why a tollbooth system under Iranian control is likely the only short-term path to restoring flows.
(05:02) Saudi infrastructure under fire
Phil flags attacks on the East-West pipeline and unconfirmed reports near Abqaiq, raising questions about whether rerouted Saudi crude is really safe even during a ceasefire.
(06:56) Demand destruction: price-led vs policy-led
The team maps out a two-tier system where Asia faces price-driven run cuts while Europe may need policy intervention to bring consumption down without crushing the economy.
(08:36) US oil stocks: building when they should be drawing
Neil and Phil unpack why US commercial stocks are still building despite record export economics, and what SPR releases and April WTI loadings could change.
(12:09) Light ends: paper sell-off, physical strength
Jorge breaks down the $5/bbl gasoline and $40/mt naphtha corrections on East-West, why physical premiums are at record levels across all regions, and where the ARB opportunities sit.
(17:38) Crude physicals: diffs still climbing
Phil covers North Sea DFLs holding firm, West African diffs hitting new records, Aramco OSPs for May, and why Mars and Arab Light are landing at similar levels into the Far East.
(20:00) Margins and the global run cut question
The team discusses why refining margins in both Asia and Europe are under pressure, Japan's utilisation dropping into the 60% range, and how the marginal barrel economics are starting to force the run cuts the market needs.
(22:47) Distillates: risk-off noise vs physical reality
Phil walks through the $15/bbl crack correction on ceasefire headlines, why diesel East-West barely moved versus jet, and why the strongest incentive remains moving diesel to Asia as fast as possible.
 
 

Episode 87: Diesel's unfolding crisis: Demand destruction is the only fix

In this episode of Trade with Conviction, Felipe, Phil, and James break down the supply crisis rattling every product market, and where traders can find edge right now.
Chapters
(00:17) Geopolitics: The Hormuz Standoff
Felipe and Phil debate whether anything has really changed, Trump's contradictory messaging to markets, Israel, GCC and Iran simultaneously, the UAE's UN letter invoking Article 7 to reopen Hormuz, and why the how of ending this conflict matters far more than the when.
(10:12) Supply Reality Check: 10mb/d Gone, Plan Bs Burning Fast
Phil runs the brutal arithmetic: 10mb/d lost, SPRs and demand destruction covering maybe 3-4mb/d at best. James walks through Asian governments scrambling — Japan and South Korea tapping SPRs, Southeast Asia mandating work-from-home, Australia tweaking diesel specs. The oil-on-water buffer is largely gone.
(20:25) Gasoline: Choppy, Not the Story
Felipe explains why gasoline is a slow burner right now — the US Jones Act waiver and RVP spec change making America self-sufficient, Dangote running full in West Africa, and European ARBs too choppy to capture. Phil flags the TA ARB turning positive and makes the case for a May E-Bob crack. The real call: June or Q3.
(29:22) Diesel & Jet: A Market in Meltdown
James unpacks the numbers that stopped the room. Singapore diesel spreads doubling from $25 to $70/bbl overnight, gasoil East-West exploding from $100 to $400/tonne in days. Every conventional resupply route into Europe is closed. Ryanair is already flagging flight cancellations. The only fix is demand destruction, and we're not there yet.
(40:18) Freight: Good Time to Be a Ship Owner
Phil closes with the Atlantic freight picture, Gulf Coast supply lists tightening without a corresponding export surge, TC2 finally joining the rally, and why vessel owners are the quiet winners of the crisis.

Episode 86: Headline chaos: price suppression, weak forward margins, West-East barrels flowing

Paper market has been calm… but physical still flashes risk.In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, we break down a market that doesn’t add up. Middle East escalation. Russian supply under threat. West-East flows rising.
Chapters: 
(00:37) Headlines: Middle East escalation & price volatilityThe team breaks down rising tensions between Iran, Israel, and the US, Hormuz risks, and why positioning in crude is becoming increasingly difficult.
(05:30) Russian flows under pressure: Ukraine strikes & supply riskAttacks on key Russian export infrastructure and tankers raise major supply concerns, yet price reaction remains muted.
(08:21) Market disconnect: crude strength vs product sell-offA sharp collapse in gasoline and diesel cracks despite tightening fundamentals raises questions about risk-off sentiment vs physical reality.
(12:03) Gasoline: Europe feeds the EastEurope emerges as the key supplier to deficit regions, with shifting ARBs and tightening inventories reshaping flows.
(20:40) Diesel: shortages emerging & flows shiftingUS to Asia diesel arb opens, jet weakness flips regrades, and supply stress begins to show in key regions.
(24:06) Crude flows: WTI dominates & Asia strugglesWTI becomes the marginal barrel globally, while Asia faces challenges securing West-of-Suez crude.
 

Episode 85: Trump blinks on Iran. The trade is in the spreads, not the headline

In this emergency episode of the Trade with Conviction podcast, host Felipe is joined by analysts June and Neil to break down one of the most volatile weeks in recent oil market history. Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, Monday's shock de-escalation, suspicious pre-announcement trading in oil, bonds and equities, drone attacks across Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and a fire at Valero Port Arthur's diesel hydrotreater — the team cuts through the noise and lands on a clear conclusion: crude futures are being managed at $100, but the physical product market isn't buying it. They walk through the recovery timeline if Hormuz reopens, explain why the real trade is in deferred cracks and time spreads, and set out exactly what traders should be watching next.
Chapters: 
(00:53) Iran, Trump and the 48-hour ultimatum
Neil walks through the weekend's escalation — Trump's threat to bomb Iranian power plants, Iran's counter-escalation, and how fears over GCC desalination infrastructure brought the region to the edge.
(04:33) The pre-announcement anomaly
Five minutes before Trump's post, oil, bonds and equities all moved in the same direction. Felipe breaks down the unusual volume spike and why it's creating a growing mistrust in market integrity.
(07:45) Tuesday: Iran retaliates and Valero Port Arthur catches fire
June covers the morning's events — drone attacks intercepted over Saudi Arabia, power outages in Kuwait, sirens in Bahrain, and an unplanned explosion at the diesel hydrotreater of one of the US's top 10 refineries.
(09:48) Three scenarios: de-escalation, price suppression or chaos?
The team stress-tests what Monday's announcement actually means. Neil's base case: crude futures are being managed at $100, but the product supply crunch hasn't gone anywhere.
(20:15) If Hormuz opens tonight, we're already in June
Neil and June walk through every link in the recovery chain — vessel ballasting, oil field restarts, AG refinery force majeures, port congestion, Asian restocking. The maths lands on three to six months before anything normalises.
(29:16) The trade: time spreads and cracks, not flat price
Flat price is being capped. Everything else isn't. Felipe and Neil make the case for rolling backwardation and deferred cracks as the cleaner, lower-noise trade while headlines keep crude choppy.
 
 
 

Episode 84: South Pars hit. Escalation was fast. What happens to oil from here?

The war in the Middle East escalated again. Israel struck South Pars. Iran responded with attacks on Ras Laffan and Saudi refineries. And as this episode was recorded, Reuters confirmed Yambu had stopped loading oil.
Flat price pushed above $115. WTI collapsed to a $20 discount to Brent as export ban fears gripped the market. TC14 and TC15 have more than doubled since the conflict started. Jet fuel in Europe hit $1,700–$1,800 a tonne, and SAS has already started cancelling routes.
Chapters: 
(01:00) Headlines: South Pars, Ras Laffan and the escalation spiral Neil sets the scene. Israel hits South Pars, Iran strikes Ras Laffan and Saudi refineries, flat price breaks $115, and Trump tries to rein things in — without much conviction.
(03:09) Jones Act and the export ban trade
A 60-day waiver on all products lands. The team debates why WTI-Brent blew out to minus $20 anyway — and whether a crude or product export ban is next.
(14:50) Gasoline: East-West at historical highs
Jorge walks through the TAR collapse, FizzWest hitting new records, and arbs opening into Australia and Indonesia — a signal that East-West may finally be approaching its limit.
(22:53) Naphtha: South Pars condensate and demand destruction
 
The South Pars strike hits naphtha directly through condensate supply. Jorge covers Russian naphtha picking up, Asian steam cracker rationalisations, and where demand destruction shows up first.
(29:00) Distillates and jet: Europe is drawing down fast
Phil covers Gulf Coast arb economics, the Hogo under political pressure, and why jet at $1,700–$1,800/tonne is already forcing SAS to cancel intra-European routes.
(35:34) Crude: WTI at minus $20 and Yambu stops loading
Neil unpacks why WTI is now the cheapest crude in the world, fixtures heading to Asia, and — breaking live on the episode — Reuters confirms Yambu has halted oil loading.
 

Episode 83: SPR releases vs supply outages: Can governments stop the oil shock?

This episode focused on how the escalating conflict is moving beyond headline risk and into a full physical market disruption, with tanker attacks, port damage, refinery outages and force majeure declarations reshaping crude and product flows across the Middle East and Asia. The team unpacked why government intervention, including SPR releases and possible demand controls, is only a partial fix, and why the deepest stress is showing up in products rather than crude, especially diesel, jet, gasoline, naphtha and LPG. They also explored the growing strain on Asian refiners and petrochemical players, the knock on effects for freight and arbitrage economics, and why market paralysis and political intervention are making this one of the hardest environments to price and trade.
📚 Chapters
(00:40) Headlines, tanker attacks and the SPR responseThe team opens with the latest escalation in tanker attacks, infrastructure damage and US efforts to contain oil prices, before breaking down why the SPR release may help at the margin but still falls short of plugging the supply gap.
(10:14) Petrochemicals and force majeures across AsiaJorge explains how disrupted Middle East crude, LPG and feedstock flows are hitting petrochemical producers in Korea, Japan, India and Southeast Asia, triggering force majeure announcements and forcing run cuts.
(12:08) Distillates take the biggest hitJames lays out why diesel and jet remain the most stressed products in the barrel, with historic pricing moves, broken East West economics and few obvious solutions for short markets in both Asia and the Atlantic Basin.
(16:41) Gasoline, naphtha and LPG reprice fastThe discussion shifts to light ends, where East West gasoline and naphtha spreads continue to surge, arbitrage routes are being redrawn, and India’s LPG exposure adds another layer of inflation and demand risk.
(21:05) Freight dislocation and the strange crude marketThe team looks at how tankers are repositioning away from risk, why freight is distorting crude economics, and why physical differentials in the West are not yet reacting as aggressively as the broader market might suggest.
(28:12) Fuel oil pressure and tactical trade ideasThe episode closes with a look at fuel oil’s role in the wider shortage, how VLSFO is beginning to compete for distillate molecules, and where the team sees the most interesting, if highly tactical, trading opportunities.
 

Episode 82: Hormuz stays shut: products, freight and the real market squeeze

This emergency episode unpacks the market fallout from the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and why the real issue is no longer just crude, but the knock on impact across products, refinery runs and freight. The team looks at why SPR releases are unlikely to solve a disruption of this scale, how Asia is absorbing the biggest immediate hit, why gasoline, jet and distillates are becoming the real pressure points, and how freight markets are reacting as trade flows are forced to reroute. Across the discussion, the central takeaway is clear: until the strait reopens, every other market move is really just a consequence of that one bottleneck.
📚 Chapters
(00:50) Hormuz remains shut and the disruption spreadsFelipe opens with the weekend’s key developments, from Iran’s political signalling to fresh force majeures across Asia, and why the closure of the strait still overwhelms every other market headline.
(05:00) Why SPR releases are not a real solutionThe team breaks down the limits of strategic reserve releases, where the barrels are, how fast they can actually be drawn, and why this is only a temporary buffer rather than a fix.
(09:42) Freight starts repricing the crisisMichael explains the sharp moves in tanker forward curves, the impact of SPR expectations on Atlantic basin freight, and why owners are increasingly being pulled toward the strongest loading regions.
(20:44) Crude dislocations, Brent structure and the Yanbu escape valveNeil looks at why some physical crude markets are reacting hard while others remain strangely quiet, what that says about refinery behaviour, and how much Yanbu can realistically help.
(25:41) Distillates and jet: where the real squeeze beginsJames and the team dig into diesel and jet pricing, the shifting east-west economics, and why East Asia and Europe could both end up in a tougher spot than the crude market alone suggests.
(31:50) Gasoline and naphtha: open arbitrage, weak confidenceThe conversation turns to gasoline and naphtha, where paper signals say barrels should move east, but real world execution, demand uncertainty and refinery behaviour make the trade far messier.
 

Episode 81: Oil at War: Sparta live podcast

In this emergency episode, the team unpacks the fast moving market impact of the Iran conflict, focusing on how disruptions are showing up first through shipping and insurance, then cascading into crude and refined products.
Chapters
(00:50) Emergency episode: What happened, what matters, what to watchA rapid briefing on the Iran conflict, early market signals, and the key variables for traders.
(02:05) Hormuz, insurance, and the market’s day by day repricingWhy shipping slowed, how war risk insurance became a gating factor, and what changed into Tuesday.
(07:11) Freight market shock: paralysis in the AG and repositioning westWhat’s tradable versus theoretical in rates, and why long haul western flows suddenly make sense.
(12:04) Price action under the surface: spreads, diffs, and product stressHow inter regional and inter product pricing is responding, including crude quality impacts and cracks.
(16:17) Jet and diesel take the lead: run cuts, regrades, and the Asia squeezeWhy refiners cut runs early, why jet is structurally exposed, and how flows and arbs are flipping.
(23:14) Scenarios and tail risks: supply chain damage vs sudden reliefA framework for what comes next, and why even de escalation doesn’t instantly normalize balances.

Episode 80: Strait of Hormuz disruption: Freight shock, cracks surge, and what traders must watch next

In this special episode, the team reacts to the sudden escalation in the Middle East following attacks involving Iran, Israel and the US, focusing on the immediate market impact rather than long term forecasts. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz effectively halted, the discussion centres on whether the market is facing a logistical bottleneck or a genuine supply shock, and how that distinction is driving sharp moves in freight, crude differentials and product cracks. The group breaks down cross commodity reactions across crude, distillates, gasoline, naphtha and fuel oil, assesses the limits of the so called “oil glut” narrative, and outlines the critical signals traders should monitor over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Chapters: 
Segment 1: What happened and what to watch next
(01:19) Strait of Hormuz: Shipping disruption and logistical shock
An overview of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, vessels piling up, and why this is initially a logistics crisis rather than an outright supply loss.
(02:55) Tanker attacks, war risk insurance, and freight spike
Discussion of reported tanker attacks, suspended war risk cover, surging AG freight rates, and the implications for global ton miles.
Segment 2: Oil market impacts and pricing signals
(06:10) Crude reaction: Dubai, Brent premiums, and arb dislocations
How Brent Dubai EFS, Dubai premiums and global crude arbs are reacting, and why traditional arbitrage signals may not function in the near term.
(06:55) Distillates and jet: East West spreads and regrade strength
Why jet and diesel cracks are rallying, the significance of AG supply risk, and what strong regrades signal about refinery behaviour.
(08:06) Gasoline and naphtha: East West blowout and Cape flows
The sharp move in gasoline and naphtha East West spreads, backwardation constraints, and the growing importance of Cape of Good Hope routing.
(09:06) Fuel oil and sour crude risk
High sulphur fuel oil strength, sour crude exposure, and the impact of rewired crude flows on product balances.
(11:38) Why are cracks going up relative to crude?
(14:10) Explaining strong jet regrades
(15:16) What is crude worth right now?
(18:34) What traders should monitor in the next 24–48 hours
Key signals to watch: escalation of infrastructure attacks, the reopening or sustained closure of Hormuz, refinery run responses, crude procurement shifts, and why the “oil glut” may be irrelevant in this context.