Sparta Market Outlook

Episode 42: Gasoline shifts, jet fuel demand & Trump’s tariff blow

In episode 42 of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, host Felipe Elink Sherman and his global team dive into the latest oil market dynamics, discussing key takeaways from the MPGC conference in Bahrain, OPEC+ production decisions, and the impact of a U.S. court ruling blocking Trump’s global tariffs. They explore rising jet fuel demand in Europe, tight WTI-Brent spreads, and an unexpected fuel oil crack surge, while highlighting structural shifts like Dangote’s influence on gasoline markets. 
Key Takeaways:
OPEC+ Output Strategy: Will the anticipated production increase flood the market, or is it already priced in? 
Trump’s Tariff Setback: How will the U.S. court’s ruling on tariffs reshape global trade flows? 
Fuel Oil’s Mysterious Rally: What’s driving the unprecedented strength in fuel oil cracks? 
WTI’s Tightening Market: Could wildfires and low Cushing inventories ignite WTI time spreads this summer? 
Gasoline Market Shifts: Why are reformate prices lagging despite bullish summer expectations?
📖 Chapters 
(01:45) MPGC Insights: Middle East’s Market Buzz
Felipe shares highlights from the MPGC conference in Bahrain, emphasizing the region’s optimism and focus on gaining market share amidst global uncertainties. 
(03:25) OPEC+ Production Outlook
Jun discusses OPEC+’s reaffirmed quotas and the upcoming May 31 meeting, questioning whether the 411 kbd increase will truly impact flat prices. 
(05:22) Trump’s Tariff Drama
John unpacks the U.S. court’s decision to block Trump’s global tariffs, exploring the uncertainty and potential economic ripple effects. 
(10:58) Russian Sanctions and Indian Imports
The team examines India’s use of U.S.-sanctioned tankers for Russian crude, highlighting geopolitical risks and market workarounds. 
(12:27) Jet Fuel Demand and Refining Margins
June highlights Europe’s strong jet fuel demand and the surprising role of fuel oil in driving robust refining margins globally. 
(18:06) Physical Crude Markets: Brent vs. Dubai
Juneand John analyze the Brent-Dubai EFS spread and WTI’s tight market, debating the sustainability of current price dynamics. 
(26:14) Gasoline and Reformate Dynamics
Jorge breaks down the structural shifts in gasoline markets, including Dangote’s impact and the unexpected weakness in reformate prices. 
(33:35) U.S. Arb and Summer Outlook
The team discusses the closing RBOB arbitrage to the U.S. and whether the summer driving season will spark a bullish rally.

Episode 41: Geopolitical 'choppy waters': Inventory and freight shifts in global oil markets

In Episode 41 of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, the team dives into a volatile week in the oil market, dissecting competing headlines from potential Israeli strikes on Iran to shifting U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil and EU adjustments to the Russian price cap. They explore the contrast between bearish bond market sentiments and AI-driven equity optimism, alongside a nuanced view of global oil inventories, with tight product stocks contrasting looser crude builds. The discussion also covers Indonesia’s pivot away from Singapore oil imports, its geopolitical motivations, and the potential freight and blending implications, while analyzing physical crude market dynamics, with a focus on weakening light sweet premiums and robust fuel oil demand.
Key Takeaways:
Geopolitical jitters: How are potential Middle East conflicts and U.S. sanctions reshaping oil price risks?
Inventory divergence: Why are product stocks tightening while crude inventories build, and what does this mean for traders?
Indonesia’s import shift: Could Indonesia’s move to bypass Singapore for oil imports disrupt regional gasoline markets?
Freight market signals: What’s driving the rally in AG freight rates, and will it sustain or fizzle out?
Physical crude dynamics: Why is Murban emerging as the marginal crude in the East, and how are refining margins influencing grade preferences?
📕 Chapters: 
(02:06) Macro Market Mayhem
Felipe and Neil unpack a whirlwind of headlines, from Middle East tensions to U.S. debt concerns and stagflation fears impacting oil and equity markets.
(07:28) Inventory Insights: Crude vs. Products
Dan dissects the latest JODI data, highlighting tight product stocks, looser crude builds, and why media narratives on rising inventories need caution.
(12:08) Indonesia’s Geopolitical Oil Pivot
June explores Indonesia’s move to cut Singapore oil imports, its impact on gasoline markets, and the economic challenges of sourcing from the Middle East or U.S.
(16:59) Freight Market Frenzy
Michael discusses the bullish ton-mile outlook for AG MRs and why freight rate rallies may be topping out as arbitrage margins weaken.
(25:28) Physical Crude Market Update
June analyses the weakening light sweet premiums, Murban’s role as the East’s marginal crude, and the surprising strength in sour crude demand.
(29:27) Relative Basket Index Unveiled
Michael introduces Sparta’s new RBI tool, revealing why TD 25 freight rates signal undervaluation and rising demand for U.S. Gulf Coast crude.
(35:49) Rapid-Fire Vertical Updates
The team covers gasoline, distillate, and fuel oil markets, spotlighting bearish Ara spreads, tight U.S. distillate stocks, and puzzling fuel oil strength.
 
 
 

Episode 40: Tariff relief & summer ramp-up; where does oil go from here?

In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, the team dives into the recent oil market rebound spurred by a 90-day US-China tariff reprieve, analyzing its impact on light ends, crude, and middle distillates. They explore how LPG and naphtha markets are stabilising, the bearish pressures on gasoline despite open arbitrages, and a cautiously bullish outlook on crude driven by tightening US stocks and OPEC dynamics. The discussion also covers middle distillates, noting a tactical rebound in diesel and jet fuel amid shifting global flows, while emphasizing the need to monitor fundamentals for potential volatility as trade negotiations unfold.
📚 Chapters: 
(01:46) US-China Tariff Reprieve: Market Impacts
Felipe and the team unpack the 90-day tariff pause, highlighting its immediate boost to flat prices and the rebound in LPG, with propane prices spiking 8% in the East.
(09:07) Light Ends: LPG and Naphtha Dynamics
Jorge discusses the stabilization of LPG markets and a bearish shift on naphtha, driven by returning Mediterranean refineries and weaker petrochemical margins.
(10:49) Gasoline Markets: Bearish Signals Persist
The team explores the bearish outlook on EBOB and RBOB, with open arbitrages failing to clear inventories and physical markets lagging paper trends.
(21:35) Crude Outlook: Bullish Fundamentals Emerge
Neil shares a bullish view on crude, citing early US stock draws, strong Chinese imports, and skepticism about OPEC’s supply hikes, with a focus on Brent and Dubai spreads.
(29:09) Middle Distillates: Tactical Rebound in Diesel and Jet
James analyzes the short-term strength in diesel and jet fuel, driven by low US stocks and shut arbitrages, but warns of a bearish medium-term outlook as global runs increase.
(35:56) Market Calls and Wrap-Up
The team summarizes their trading views, including bearish naphtha time spreads, bullish Brent spreads, and tactical buys in June ice gas oil and heating oil.
 

Episode 39: OPEC hikes, refining rises, and fuel oil surprises

In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, the team dissects the latest oil market dynamics, focusing on OPEC's confirmed supply hikes and their mixed market reception amidst tariff concerns. They explore robust refining margins driving high run rates globally, particularly in Asia and the U.S., and analyse tightness in the medium crude market despite North Sea weaknesses.
The discussion also covers bearish signals in distillate and low sulfur fuel oil markets, alongside a correction in European gasoline markets, offering traders critical insights into navigating these volatile shifts.
📚 Chapters: 
(01:25) OPEC Supply Hikes: Market Reactions and Implications
Neil breaks down the weekend’s OPEC+ news, discussing the confirmed supply increase, market focus shifting from tariffs, and the potential for lower consumer prices impacting non-OPEC producers.(04:11) Crude Market Outlook: Tightness in Mediums, North Sea Weakness
The team examines the physical crude market, highlighting tightness in medium crudes, a collapsing North Sea market, and the need for clarity on real OPEC export volumes.
(12:48) Fuel Oil Markets: High Sulfur Strength and Bearish Bets
Hoa unpacks the surprising strength in high sulfur fuel oil, the role of Australian heavy crudes in blending, and why the market may be overextended, teasing a bearish outlook.
(19:26) Distillate Dynamics: Bearish Signals in Diesel and Jet
James shares his bearish view on distillate markets, noting contango trends in diesel spreads, reduced U.S. demand, and the impact of Middle Eastern flows on European markets.
(25:49) Gasoline Correction: European Weakness and Arbitrage Shifts
Jorge analyzes the European gasoline market’s correction, low reformate premiums, and competitive arbitrage flows from Singapore to key destinations like Mexico and West Africa.
(32:32) Trade Ideas: Positioning for the Week Ahead
The team shares actionable trade ideas, from bearish distillate spreads to potential rebounds in East-West gasoline arbitrage, setting the stage for next week’s follow-up.
 
 
 
 

Episode 38: Oil market insights: Unraveling the $5 price drop and sanctions speculation

In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, host Rachel Williams and analysts Neil and June dissect a pivotal moment in the oil market, marked by a $5 price drop, shifting physical crude dynamics, and mixed macro signals.
They explore the impact of potential secondary sanctions on Russian oil, OPEC+ supply hikes, and a weakening Dubai market, contrasted by strengthening Brent spreads. The discussion delves into diesel's resilience, jet fuel demand spikes, and bearish signals like softening Dubai swaps and cautious buying patterns, offering traders actionable insights into navigating this volatile landscape.
🛎️ Key Takeaways:
> Price Plunge and Market Disconnect: Why are oil prices down $5 despite equity market recoveries, and what’s driving the gap between macro hopes and energy fundamentals?
> Sanctions Speculation: Could Trump’s hybrid tariff-sanction model target Russian oil, and how might this reshape global crude flows?
> Physical Market Pivot: What’s behind the collapse of Dubai spreads and the surprising strength in Brent—signs of a structural shift or short-term noise?
> Diesel and Jet Signals: Why is diesel holding firm, and what’s fueling the jet demand surge in the U.S. Gulf Coast?
> OPEC+ and Supply Risks: How could OPEC+’s supply hikes and Kazakhstan’s comments impact an already weakening market?
📚 Chapters
(01:48) Price Drop Drivers and Macro Noise
Neil breaks down the $5 oil price decline, contango in Q4 crude structures, and the puzzling disconnect between equity market optimism and energy market realities.
(04:30) Secondary Sanctions on Russia?
The team explores Trump’s potential use of hybrid tariffs and secondary sanctions on Russian oil, assessing impacts on global diesel and crude flows.
(09:41) Bearish Signals in a Recession Scenario
June and Neil discuss key triggers for a bearish commodity outlook, spotlighting diesel, naphtha, and employment data as early recession indicators.
(11:48) Crude Market Turning Point
June dives into the weakening Dubai swaps, skyrocketing EFS, and cautious Asian buying, signaling a potential shift in physical crude balances.
(14:28) Brent vs. Dubai Divergence
The analysts unpack why Brent spreads are strengthening while Dubai collapses, with Forties flows and North Sea supply dynamics in focus.
(22:08) Saudi and Kuwait Fuel Strategies
June outlines Saudi Arabia’s liquid displacement program and Kuwait’s fuel oil switch, and their implications for global fuel oil exports.
(24:24) Diesel Resilience and Jet Demand Surge
Neil examines why diesel cracks remain strong, Asia’s tightness, and a surprising jet fuel demand spike in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Episode 37: Barrel breakdown: From brent bulls to Iran bets

In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, host Rachel Williams and the Sparta team dive into a volatile oil market shaped by headline-driven flat price movements and underlying structural dynamics. They explore the impact of geopolitical developments, such as Kazakhstan’s OPEC+ compliance issues and potential Iran deal progress, alongside tight product markets and strong Brent-related spreads. The discussion highlights mispriced assets like North Sea crude and propane, while offering actionable insights on spreads and arbitrage opportunities, with a cautiously bullish short-term outlook tempered by medium-term uncertainties.
Key Takeaways:
> Headline Chaos or Structural Shift? The team debates whether sharp flat price swings are purely news-driven or signal deeper market changes. 
> North Sea Crude Conundrum: Why are Forties premiums defying expectations, and is a correction looming? 
> Iran Deal Momentum: Could a diplomatic breakthrough unleash significant oil volumes, and how fast might they hit the market? 
> Product Market Tightness: From low US distillate stocks to rallying gasoline spreads, where are the next opportunities?  > Naphtha vs. LPG Divergence: What’s driving the stark contrast in time spreads, and is naphtha’s bullish run sustainable?
📖 Chapters:
(01:30) Flat Price Frenzy: Headline or Fundamentals?
Rachel and Neil unpack the wild swings in flat price, questioning whether geopolitical noise or structural shifts are at play, with Kazakhstan’s OPEC+ woes in focus. 
(05:20) Product Markets: Tight Stocks, Tight Margins
Discussion shifts to tight US inventory data, rallying gasoline spreads, and HSFO’s surprising strength, with insights on consumer demand signals. 
(08:30) Iran Talks: A Game-Changer?
Phil explores the potential for an Iran deal, assessing the speed and scale of volume returns if diplomacy prevails. 
(11:30) Distillate Dynamics: US Stocks and Eastbound Flows
Neil dives into low US distillate stocks, Bayway’s restart, and the balance between domestic recovery and strong eastbound arbitrage flows. 
(18:59) Naphtha’s Bullish Run vs. LPG Lag
Jorge breaks down the divergence in naphtha and LPG time spreads, highlighting naphtha’s short-term strength and arbitrage recovery. 
(24:18) Gasoline and Regional Arbs
Phil examines Bayway’s return, pad one inventory dynamics, and the shifting Atlantic Basin gasoline arbitrage landscape. 
(30:05) Mispriced Assets and Top Trades
The team shares their picks for the most mispriced barrel segments and the spreads or arbs they’d go long on for the coming months.
 

Episode 36: Tariff fatigue, falling WTI prices & surging naphtha demand

This week on Sparta Market Outlook, we unpack the post-“Liberation Day” chaos: WTI is on sale, US shale producers are feeling the squeeze, and product cracks are painting a bullish picture—despite bearish forecasts. From Warsaw, Indiana (not Poland) to East Asia, we trace shifting trade flows, a naphtha comeback, and why margins might be lying to you. Is this the calm after the tariff storm—or just the eye of it?
Demand destruction vs. resilient margins
WTI’s pain zone explained
China’s crude buying blitz
LPG & naphtha in the spotlight
Gasoline’s slow seasonal grind
Plus: Why diesel might be the real economic truth-teller
For more information about Sparta, visit us at www.spartacommodities.com

Episode 35: The waiting game: Flat price plummets, physical oil mostly holds firm

In this episode of Sparta Market Outlook, host Felipe Elink Schuurman and analysts Neil Crosby, June Goh, and Jorge Molinero analyse the oil market’s reaction to tariff announcements, including a $15 flat price drop and significant LPG disruptions. They explore how physical markets—crude, diesel, and gasoline—have held steady despite the noise, while naphtha and LPG face bearish pressures tied to China specifically and the petrochemical market. The team debates short-term trading opportunities, like locking in refining margins, and mid-term scenarios, from OPEC strategy to demand shocks, offering traders a clearer path through the chaos.🔷 Tariff shockwave: While flat prices plummet $15 and financial markets are in chaos, the physical oil market has come through relatively unscathed for now.
🔷 LPG’s big hit: How are tariffs reshaping China’s LPG imports and, and what’s the ripple effect on the petchem industry?
🔷 Physical market resilience: Discover why product markets are largely holding firm despite the volatility.
🔷 Naphtha’s weak spot: Will naphtha’s bearish slide last in the short-term?
🔷 Oil balancing factors: Which oil producers are most reactive to price as the tariff story unfolds?
🔷 Refining margins: Do low pump prices and steady demand create short-term opportunities?
📚 Chapters
(02:30) Tariff Shock: The $15 Drop
The team dives into the market’s reaction to unexpected tariffs, unpacking the $15 flat price plunge and the initial global response.
(10:00) Physical Markets Hold Steady
Neil breaks down why crude, diesel, and gasoline spreads and cracks remain resilient despite the chaos, offering clues for traders.
(13:45) Naphtha Weakness vs. Gasoline Strength
The discussion shifts to naphtha’s bearish slide and gasoline’s surprising margin opportunities—where’s the edge?
(19:16) LPG Crisis: China’s Trade Turmoil
Jorge and Neil spotlight the tariffs’ massive hit to China’s LPG imports, hinting at a 30% price collapse and shifting cargo destinations.
(32:09) Distillates: A Bullish Surprise?
Neil explores why diesel cracks and spreads are holding firm, with Asia’s tightness and Europe’s closed arbs hinting at unexpected strength.
(35:30) Crude Premiums and Refining Realities
June analyses falling crude premiums, OPEC’s supply moves, and how refining margins signal physical demand strength.
(41:06) Clarity Amid Chaos
Felipe and the analysts wrap up with short-term trading ideas and a wait-and-see stance for what’s next in this tariff saga.
 

Episode 34: Oil on edge: Liberation or correction?

The latest Sparta Market Outlook Podcast dives into oil market chaos sparked by "Liberation Day" tariff uncertainty. Host Felipe and analysts Neil, Phil, and Hoa unpack U.S. tariff threats, sanctions on Venezuela and Russia, and their ripple effects across oil markets. Bullish signals - think Russia’s CPC shutdown and tight crude - clash with a wait-and-see mood as traders eye tonight’s big tariff reveal. It’s tactical trades meets fundamentals in a market on the edge.
Key takeaways:
> Liberation day uncertainty: What will tonight’s tariff announcement mean for oil trade - reciprocal tariffs, a flat global rate, or a negotiable system?
> Crude market confusion: Are sky-high DFLs justified, or is this a bubble waiting to burst?
> Physical supply shocks: How will Russia’s CPC inspections and potential Venezuelan export drops shake up crude availability?
> Gasoline’s wait-and-see mode: Open arbitrage opportunities abound, but will this push May/June EBOB spreads higher?
> Distillate’s bearish turn: Is gas oil’s mini-sell-off a sign of deeper demand worries tied to global growth?
> China’s fuel oil quotas: How do new export quotas and blending strategies impact the high sulphur complex?
📚 Chapters
(02:45) Macro Rundown: Neil on Tariffs & Turmoil
Neil unpacks tariff possibilities and the confusion gripping oil markets.
(18:12) Crude Close-Up: Supply Jolts & Spread Surges
Diving into Russia’s CPC closures and the Brent/Dubai spread frenzy.
(31:10) Gasoline Gist: Phil’s Bullish Hints & Hesitation
Phil spotlights arbitrage openings and why traders are holding back.
(45:15) Fuel Oil Focus: Hua on China’s Quotas & High Sulfur
Hua breaks down China’s export moves and the high sulfur complex shift.
 
 
 

Episode 33: Tariffs, sanctions & energy security: The changing oil landscape

In the latest Sparta podcast episode, CEO Felipe Elink Schuurman and the team discuss energy security in today's multipolar world. They reflect on insights from the FT Global Commodity Summit, emphasizing shifts from sustainability to affordability and energy security. Topics include "peak trade" versus peak oil, Trump-era tariffs impacting Venezuelan oil, and their implications on crude oil, distillates, gasoline, naphtha, and physical crude markets.
Key takeaways: 
🔷 Trump’s tariffs twist: Venezuelan oil faces a new hybrid sanction—what’s the fallout for China and global crude flows? 
🔷 Distillate cracks heating up: Low stocks and refinery hiccups hint at upside—where’s the risk? 
🔷 Gasoline’s mixed signals: ARBs shift east to west, but is the summer story still in play? 
🔷 Sour crude buzz: From Venezuela to Exxon upgrades, something’s brewing—can you spot the trade? 
🔷 WTI’s European flood: Asia’s loss could be Europe’s burden—what’s next for Brent spreads?
📚 Chapters
(01:42) FT Summit Recap: Energy Security Shifts
Felipe dives into takeaways from the FT Global Commodity Summit, spotlighting the pivot to energy security, affordability, and the intriguing "peak trade" concept.
(16:46) Trump, Tariffs, and Sanctions
The team unpacks Trump’s hybrid tariffs on Venezuelan oil, their potential hit to China, and how sanctions are shaking up global crude flows.
(22:02) Geopolitical Updates: Russia, Ukraine, and Beyond
Quick hits on Black Sea ceasefire talks, energy infrastructure risks, and what’s simmering beneath the surface geopolitically.
(27:38) Distillate Deep Dive
James breaks down the bullish vibes in distillate cracks, from low stocks to refinery turnarounds, and why the market’s still got legs.
(35:54) Light Ends Trends
Jorge takes us east to west, teasing ARBs, blending margins, and a split story in naphtha that’s keeping traders on their toes.
(44:06) Physical Crude Outlook
The crew digs into WTI’s European flood, sour crude’s rising star, and why Brent spreads might be in for a squeeze.