Sparta Market Outlook

Episode 32: Beyond Refinitiv and Bloomberg: The Next Evolution in Trading Intelligence

 $42M Raised. AI-Powered Trading. The Refinitiv for Today’s Market. 
Last month we announced our $42m Series B raise. That announcement promised a lot, but behind the bluster and marketing speak, what do these promises mean for you, and what do they mean for the wider industry?
In this must-listen episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast recorded during IE Week, Rachel Williams and Felipe pull back the curtain on why Sparta is the next evolution of commodity trading.
 What’s discussed?
 How Sparta’s AI & automation are eliminating inefficiencies in oil trading How our enterprise licence model is replacing outdated per-user models Why customisation is king – How Sparta will enable you to build your own models, automate workflows, and gain an edge Our expansion beyond oil – The whys and how of our move into LNG, gas & power markets Why legacy systems are holding traders back. The future is faster, smarter, and fully integrated.
To find out more about Sparta, visit us at www.spartacommodities.com

Episode 31: Oil market outlook: Bullish winds amid geopolitical storms and crude shifts

In this episode of Sparta Market Outlook, Rachel, Neil, and Phil break down why traders can stay bullish despite oil market volatility. They cover rising geopolitical risk premiums, the potential North Sea crude rebound, and why distillates and gasoline are primed to rally. With China’s demand ticking up and refining margins set to firm, the team delivers insights to help traders cut through the noise and seize opportunities.
📌 Key Takeaways:
🔹 Chase Volatility from Geopolitics: Trade the risk premiums popping up in flat prices and gas oil cracks because tensions in the Middle East and U.S.-Iran talks are keeping markets jittery and overreactive.🔹 Buy Low, Sell High on Crude: North Sea crude is still due a correction with Asian arbs closed and WTI landing very cheap into NWE—timing is everything.
🔹Ride the Distillate and Gasoline Surge: Lean into diesel, and EBOB trades because supply tightness and arbitrage signals are set to push cracks higher.
🔹 Bet on Margin Rebounds: Position for stronger Q2 refining margins since cracks are lagging the real supply-demand story—get ahead of the curve as maintenance wraps up.
🔹 Play China’s Demand Uptick: Tilt toward sour crude trades because China’s ramping runs and import signals are quietly tightening the market—strike while the iron’s hot.
📚 Chapters:
(01:38) JODI Data Snapshot: Stocks and Signals
Rachel kicks off with an overview of the latest JODI data, highlighting a strong build in OECD crude and product stocks for January, why it’s too early to call it bearish, and how U.S. weekly stats still point to a bullish tilt.
(06:45) Geopolitical Jitters and Market Ripples
Overview of Houthi strikes, Trump’s Iran rhetoric, and their immediate impact on oil prices and gas oil cracks with Neil and Phil.
(11:40) Crude Conundrums: North Sea Weakness Unveiled
Neil unpacks the weakening North Sea crude market, WTI’s struggles in Asia, and short-term bearish pressures versus a bullish Q2 outlook.
(20:49) Distillates on the Rise: Diesel and Jet in Focus
Phil explores the bullish turn in diesel and jet markets, driven by supply risks from Russia and the Middle East, and tightening European flows.
(23:53) Gasoline Gains: EBOB’s Bullish Streak
Discussion on gasoline strength, Bayway maintenance, and open arbitrage opportunities, with Phil questioning the sustainability of May pricing.
(32:35) Refinery Margins and the Road Ahead
Neil and Phil debate crack spreads, maintenance season signals, and why Q2 refining margins could defy bearish expectations.

Episode 30: At the crossroads of oil and freight

This special episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, 'At the crossroads of oil and freight', focuses on the intersection of freight markets and oil trading. It offers an in-depth analysis of current trends, disruptions, and geopolitical influences shaping global shipping and commodity flows.
Recorded live in Singapore on 18th March 2025, the episode features host Felipe Elink Schuurman, co-host June Goh, and special guest Anoop Singh, Global Head of Shipping Research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, specialising in freight. 
📌 Here are the key takeaways:
🔷 Freight Market Resilience: Despite disruptions like the Red Sea crisis, freight rates remain robust, particularly for LR2s and VLCCs, due to tightened vessel supply and sustained demand. Traders should monitor physical flows over paper market signals, as the latter may not fully reflect real-time shifts (e.g., TC5 freight strength despite ARB fluctuations).
🔷 Sanctions as Opportunities: OFAC sanctions and potential tariffs create arbitrage opportunities, especially for VLCCs transporting Atlantic Basin crudes to Asia. However, traders must account for volatility in sweet-sour crude spreads and the risk of sanctions unwinding (e.g., Russia-Ukraine resolution).
🔷 Geopolitical Wildcards: USTR fees on Chinese-built ships could significantly tighten vessel supply, driving up freight costs and creating a bullish outlook for traders with access to non-Chinese fleets. Conversely, tariffs may dampen global growth, softening long-term freight demand.
🔷 Refining Shifts: New refineries like Dangote reduce clean tanker demand (e.g., 80 MRs net negative impact), while European closures increase reliance on Eastern Suez barrels, boosting LR1/LR2 demand. Traders should watch quality differentials and currency risks (e.g., Naira exposure) in these regions.
🔷 Fleet Dynamics: The aging tanker fleet and incoming deliveries (e.g., 65 Aframax/LR2s, 39 Suezmaxes in 2025) suggest a softening of rates unless offset by demand shocks or scrapping. VLCCs offer a hedge against midsize tanker volatility, especially if Iran sanctions escalate.
 
 

Episode 30: At the crossroads of oil and freight

This special episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, 'At the crossroads of oil and freight', focuses on the intersection of freight markets and oil trading. It offers an in-depth analysis of current trends, disruptions, and geopolitical influences shaping global shipping and commodity flows.
Recorded live in Singapore on 18th March 2025, the episode features host Felipe Elink Schuurman, co-host June Goh, and special guest Anoop Singh, Global Head of Shipping Research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, specialising in freight. 
📌 Here are the key takeaways:
🔷 Freight Market Resilience: Despite disruptions like the Red Sea crisis, freight rates remain robust, particularly for LR2s and VLCCs, due to tightened vessel supply and sustained demand. Traders should monitor physical flows over paper market signals, as the latter may not fully reflect real-time shifts (e.g., TC5 freight strength despite ARB fluctuations).
🔷 Sanctions as Opportunities: OFAC sanctions and potential tariffs create arbitrage opportunities, especially for VLCCs transporting Atlantic Basin crudes to Asia. However, traders must account for volatility in sweet-sour crude spreads and the risk of sanctions unwinding (e.g., Russia-Ukraine resolution).
🔷 Geopolitical Wildcards: USTR fees on Chinese-built ships could significantly tighten vessel supply, driving up freight costs and creating a bullish outlook for traders with access to non-Chinese fleets. Conversely, tariffs may dampen global growth, softening long-term freight demand.
🔷 Refining Shifts: New refineries like Dangote reduce clean tanker demand (e.g., 80 MRs net negative impact), while European closures increase reliance on Eastern Suez barrels, boosting LR1/LR2 demand. Traders should watch quality differentials and currency risks (e.g., Naira exposure) in these regions.
🔷 Fleet Dynamics: The aging tanker fleet and incoming deliveries (e.g., 65 Aframax/LR2s, 39 Suezmaxes in 2025) suggest a softening of rates unless offset by demand shocks or scrapping. VLCCs offer a hedge against midsize tanker volatility, especially if Iran sanctions escalate.
 
 

Episode 29: Recession panic reigns; but physical oil is tight

Join host Rachel Williams and the Sparta analyst team as they dissect this week's global oil and energy markets. They cover tariff uncertainties, macro bearishness (the "Trump slump"), and the flat price sell-off. Highlights include a mildly bullish outlook on distillates, a cautious watch on gasoline flows, and naphtha’s short-term tightness. 
 
📌 Chapters:
 
(01:45) Tariff Turmoil and the Trump Slump
Overview of tariff uncertainty, Trump’s shifting tone, and immediate market reactions with Neil.
(08:00) Crude Market: Oversold or Overreacting?
Neil dives into crude flat price drops, time spreads, and physical market resilience.
(14:00) Distillates: Diesel and Jet Cracks in Focus
James explores diesel’s historical trends, jet stock builds, and a potential bullish shift.
(26:42) Gasoline: Normalcy or Recession Signals?
Phil assesses gasoline spreads, refinery margins, and U.S. consumer demand outlook.
(31:32) Naphtha: Bullish Momentum and Macro Risks
Jorge covers naphtha’s recovery, arbitrage to Asia, and petrochemical pressures.

Episode 28: Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs

In this episode of Sparta Market Outlook, Felipe, Neil, Phil John and Michael dive deep into THE topic shaking the trading community—tariffs. 🛢️💰
📌 Key discussions:🔹 The impact of U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican energy🔹 Market reactions: crude prices, refinery margins, and freight shifts🔹 How tariffs are reshaping gasoline and diesel flows🔹 OPEC’s supply increase & the global energy balance🔹 Potential surprises: Could Russian barrels return to U.S. refineries? 👀
Markets are moving fast, and so should you. Sparta Market Outlook give you expert analysis and actionable insights to navigate the rapidly changing landscape.
Listen now on Spotify & all major platforms! 🎧📊
(02:25) Overview of Tariffs and Immediate Market Impacts
(04:35) Regional Impacts: Bullish and Bearish Trends
(05:50) OPEC Decision and Market Sentiment
(10:50) Impact on Gasoline Markets
(21:05) Crude Market Dynamics and Tariff Effects
(25:30) Refinery Challenges and Product Yields
(31:54) End of Russian Sanctions?
(37:30) Distillate Markets and Freight Impacts
 

February 27th: Live From IE Week

View the video of this podcast at www.spartacommodities.com
Ahead of our IE Week bash at Bentley, the Sparta Market Outlook team went live from our London office for this special episode!
Felipe, Neil, Jorge, and James break down key market trends during IE Week, discussing how the new Trump administration is shifting global trade dynamics and oil price sentiment from bullish to bearish. They analyse the sharp drop in gasoline naphtha spreads, the recovery in the light sweet crude market driven by North Sea exports, and the tightening diesel market with rising margins. Plus, they explore the weakening East-West gasoline arbitrage and whether the market is nearing a bottom.
Tune in for expert insights into this week’s oil market moves!

February 27th: Live from IE Week

Ahead of our IE Week bash at Bentley, the Sparta Market Outlook team went live from our London office for this special episode!
Felipe, Neil, Jorge, and James break down key market trends during IE Week, discussing how the new Trump administration is shifting global trade dynamics and oil price sentiment from bullish to bearish. They analyse the sharp drop in gasoline naphtha spreads, the recovery in the light sweet crude market driven by North Sea exports, and the tightening diesel market with rising margins. Plus, they explore the weakening East-West gasoline arbitrage and whether the market is nearing a bottom.
Tune in for expert insights into this week’s oil market moves!

February 21st: Julien Mathonnière, Energy Intelligence – The macro outlook for global oil demand in 2025 and beyond

In this special bonus episode of Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, host @Rachel welcomes guest @Julien Mathonnière, Oil Market Economist at @Energy Intelligence, along with Sparta’s @Neil and @Phil, to discuss key macroeconomic indicators, the energy transition, and long-term oil demand trends through 2025 and beyond. Topics include the peaking of diesel demand, China’s rapid transition (e.g., LNG trucks, EV adoption), and India’s growing demand amid policy and sanction risks.
(03:00) Fundamentals of Tracking Oil Demand(05:00) IEA vs. OPEC: Polarised Demand Forecasts(08:51) Discrepancies Between IEA and OPEC(11:50) Demand Forecasting(16:25) Short-Term vs. Long-Term Demand Forecasts(24:30) State of the Gasoil Market(27:55) Regional Focus: India, China & Unexpected Trends(31:30) China(35:00) The Role of Renewables & EVs(40:55) Wrap-Up & Key Takeaways

February 19th: Live from Singapore: East of Suez Special – Insights into crude and fuel oil markets

In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, recorded live in Singapore, our team of experts - Felipe, Hoa, June, and Neil - delve into the latest trends and developments in the oil market with an East of Suez focus. We discuss critical data releases such as JODI, the potential impact of KRG crude returning to international markets, and shifting geopolitical sands. The podcast also covers Chinese teapots, biofuels in Asia, and a likely bearish turn for the fuel oil market.
 
(08:55) East of Suez Crude Developments.
(12:05) Teapots.
(13:45) India, Korea Crude Buying.
(14:50) Chinese Petchem Demand.
(17:21) Low Sulphur Fuel Oil.
(21:10) Singapore LS Blending.
(22:46) High Sulphur Fuel Oil.