Episode 113: ICE gasoil cracks remain over $85/bbl. China's export ban cuts deep

Host June Goh welcomes Sparta colleagues James Noel-Beswick and Jorge Molinero to unpack the diesel crisis: why global stocks have hit 10-year lows, how geopolitics and refinery outages are compounding the squeeze, and where traders should look to position next.

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Chapters:

(03:59) Red Diesel and the US Response: Washington explores red diesel sales and fuel tax cuts as diesel prices hit $6 a gallon. EU pressure intensifies as the White House threatens export bans.

(04:00) Middle East Flows and Supply Reality: Saudi East-West pipeline back online, but production still far below capacity. Global crude rebounding, but refined products remain dangerously tight.

(06:35) China's Policy Pivot: Crude import quotas flat. Product exports suspended. The refinery outage crisis spreads—India's MRPL fires, potential strikes at US Gulf refineries.

(08:47) Light Distillates and Freight Gasoline stocks at 12-year lows. Naphtha weakness, but gasoline holding firm. LPG tight. Freight—specifically TC5 from Europe—up 65% in one month.

(15:38) The Diesel Armageddon: Singapore diesel cracks at seasonal highs. All regular diesel arbs into Singapore closed. European pricing bucking the trend. Heating oil cracks exploding.

(20:23) Trade Calls and Crude Outlook: James makes the bull case for Q1 heating oil cracks (at $90 per barrel). June covers the US SPR release and Mars basis under pressure through year-end.

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